Mexico Forecasts Up to 15 Atlantic Cyclones for 2026 Hurricane Season

Cancún, Quintana Roo — Mexico’s National Weather Service (SMN) has officially released its forecast for the 2026 tropical cyclone season, predicting between 11 and 15 named storms for the Atlantic basin, which directly impacts the coast of Quintana Roo.

During the National Civil Protection Meeting held in Veracruz, officials warned that while overall activity in the Caribbean may be slightly below the historical average, the intensity of storms and warm ocean temperatures keep the region on high alert.

SMN Director Fabián Vázquez Romaña explained that the main climate driver this year will be a transition to a warm phase known as El Niño. This phenomenon creates mixed conditions: while the Pacific is expected to see a very active season, trade winds in the Caribbean tend to strengthen, making cyclone formation more difficult there. However, Vázquez Romaña warned that the rest of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico have very high temperatures, which could produce powerful systems.

“We could have a transition to a warm base… known as El Niño. If the Pacific Ocean is warmer, we would have more energy for more hurricanes to form there, but that causes trade winds in the Caribbean to be very intense, making it hard for cyclones to form in the Caribbean,” he said. “However, the Atlantic as a whole has shown a positive temperature anomaly; it has been very warm in recent years, so cyclones could indeed form there.”

The detailed forecast for the Atlantic coast includes seven to eight tropical storms, three to five Category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and the possibility of one to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with September expected to be the peak month for cyclone activity.

Authorities urged coastal states like Quintana Roo to maintain a culture of prevention, stressing that beyond the overall statistics, the real risk lies in the impact of a single event.

“This is the numbers game; we must be prepared. We really only need one; one is enough to get us into trouble. That’s the message: the one that hits us is the one we have to be well prepared for,” Vázquez Romaña concluded.

The list of names to be used for Atlantic storms this year includes: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.

Atlantic Ocean Forecast

• 11 to 15 tropical cyclones
• 7 to 8 tropical storms
• 3 to 5 hurricanes (Category 1 or 2)
• 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5)

Pacific Ocean Forecast

• 18 to 21 tropical cyclones
• 9 to 10 tropical storms
• 5 to 6 hurricanes (Category 1 or 2)
• 4 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 4 or 5)