Quintana Roo to Lead Mexico in GDP Growth, BBVA Report Says

Cancún, Quintana Roo — Quintana Roo will post the highest gross domestic product growth in Mexico this year at 5.5%, according to a report from BBVA Research.

The bank’s Regional Sectoral Situation Mexico 26S1 report estimates the state’s GDP will reach 407.2 billion pesos in 2026, up from 386 billion pesos in 2025.

“Part of this boost will be linked to World Cup-related activity, particularly in sectors such as transportation, tourism and consumption, whose effects will be concentrated in major metropolitan areas but will also extend to tourist destinations like Quintana Roo and Baja California Sur,” the report states.

Baja California Sur is forecast to grow 3.7%, while Mexico City is expected to expand 2.7% — meaning Quintana Roo will grow at nearly double the rate of the capital.

“This multiplier effect could generate greater dynamism in services and related activities, strengthening the recovery of the tertiary sector,” the report adds.

Other southeastern states are also expected to perform well in 2026, with the exception of Campeche, which will grow just 0.9%, and Tabasco, which is projected to contract 0.3% as both “continue in a process of economic reconfiguration.”

Neighboring Yucatán is forecast to grow 2%, with its GDP rising from 406 billion to 414 billion pesos, driven by strong export dynamism in technology sectors and greater industrial integration.

The report attributes the overall performance to strategies such as the Mexico Plan and Development Poles, which aim to gradually revive investment, especially in the secondary sector, boosting economic performance across various states.