13M Illegal Guns in Mexico Fuel Rising Violence

Mexico City, Mexico — A thriving illegal firearms market continues to flood Mexico with weapons primarily smuggled from abroad. Each year, organized crime groups and common criminals acquire more than 200,000 illegally imported firearms, the majority originating from the United States.

A Growing Crisis

According to Sergio Aguayo Quezada, a researcher at El Colegio de México, between 2005 and 2024, approximately 3.9 million illegal firearms entered Mexico. Federal authorities managed to seize only 8.64% of these weapons, highlighting their inability to curb the flow.

The United Nations has warned that Mexican cartels launder money through illegal arms trafficking. In communities where gunfire has become a daily occurrence, the consequences are stark: seven out of every 10 murders in Mexico are now committed with firearms.

Rising Homicide Rates

Data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), analyzed by El Colegio de México’s Seminar on Violence and Peace, reveals alarming trends. In 2024, 27,794 homicides were recorded, with 20,268—72.92%—involving firearms. This marks the highest percentage in Mexico’s history, with figures current as of November 2024.

The prevalence of gun-related homicides has surged over the years. In 2001, during President Vicente Fox’s administration, 51.68% of homicides involved firearms. By 2006, that figure rose to 54.86%. Under President Felipe Calderón (2007–2012), gun-related homicides peaked at 70.52% in 2010. During Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency (2013–2018), the rate fluctuated between 62.44% and 70.25%. Under current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the rate has remained above 70%, reaching 71.60% in 2023.

Dulce Alicia Torres Hernández, author of the report “Aporte del Seminario sobre Violencia y Paz a la discusión sobre las armas de fuego en México” from El Colegio de México, calculated that in 2024, Mexico’s firearm-related homicide rate stood at 16.08 per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest rates occurred in 2018 (21.50), 2019 (21.48), and 2020 (20.37 per 100,000).

The U.S. Connection

The expiration of the U.S. Federal Assault Weapons Ban in 2004 correlates with a sharp increase in gun violence in Mexico. That year, 50.50% of homicides involved firearms; by 2024, the figure had risen to 72.92%.

Estimates of the number of firearms trafficked annually from the U.S. to Mexico vary widely:

• The López Obrador administration’s National Public Security Strategy estimates 200,000 weapons per year.
• A study in the Journal of Economic Geography suggests over 210,000.
• Research by the University of San Diego’s Trans-Border Institute (2013) found 253,000 weapons trafficked annually between 2010 and 2012.
• A 2021 lawsuit filed by the Mexican government against U.S. gun manufacturers cited 873,000 weapons per year.

According to the Small Arms Survey, affiliated with the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) in Geneva, Mexico had an estimated 16.8 million firearms—both legal and illegal—in civilian hands by the end of 2017. Subtracting the 3,425,181 weapons registered with Mexico’s Secretariat of National Defense between 2000 and 2017 leaves approximately 13,374,819 illegal firearms in circulation.

Seizures and Enforcement

Data obtained through Mexico’s National Transparency Platform reveals that from 2019 to October 2024, the Mexican Army seized 41,828 firearms and 3,239 grenades. In 2019 alone, authorities confiscated 5,657 firearms and 345 grenades; by 2023, those numbers rose to 9,395 firearms and 698 grenades.

Between 2005 and June 2024, a total of 337,067 firearms were seized. The highest number of confiscations occurred during Felipe Calderón’s presidency (163,420 from 2007–2012), followed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration (109,097 from 2019–June 2024) and Enrique Peña Nieto’s term (55,215 from 2013–2018).

The U.S. Gun Market’s Role

Carlos A. Pérez Ricart, an academic at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE), argues that firearms trafficking is one of Mexico’s most pressing challenges. “No country can withstand the influx of over 200,000 new weapons each year,” he stated.

Pérez Ricart emphasized that the U.S. has 77,803 gun stores—equivalent to the number of McDonald’s, Burger King, Subway, and Wendy’s locations combined—which supply 70% of the firearms used by Mexican criminal organizations. Notably, 25 gun stores in Yuma, Arizona, sold 591 firearms destined for Mexico between 2015 and 2025, while Shooter’s Sport Center in Racine, Wisconsin, sold over $600,000 worth of .50-caliber Barrett rifles later used by cartel hitmen.

With the U.S. government now classifying Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, Pérez Ricart warns that arms suppliers may face greater scrutiny. “The Trump administration will have to perform rhetorical gymnastics to avoid implicating U.S. gun retailers in fueling Mexico’s violence,” he said.