Middle East Conflict Drives Mexican Food Prices Up 4.59% in March

Mexico City — The Middle East conflict has disrupted energy markets and driven up production costs for basic foods in Mexico, pushing overall inflation to 4.59% in March, the highest level since October 2024, according to national statistics.

The National Union of Agricultural Workers (UNTA) warned that the conflict’s impact on energy markets has increased costs for Mexican food producers. Data from INEGI, the national statistics agency, shows the 4.59% inflation rate represents a significant jump in consumer prices.

Specific products have seen dramatic increases. According to a BanCoppel analysis, tomato prices rose 126.3% annually in March, while fresh chilies increased 34.1% and lemons 32.7%.

UNTA leader Álvaro López Ríos explained in an interview with local newspaper La Jornada that producers face higher costs due to fuel shortages from the Strait of Hormuz closure and fertilizer price increases of 15% to 40%.

“These increases force producers and sellers to raise final prices to cover higher transportation and production costs for basic foods like corn, tomatoes, onions, potatoes, and carrots,” López Ríos said. “Traders can’t absorb the price increases for these two basic agricultural inputs themselves.”

Ignacio Martínez, coordinator of the Laboratory for Analysis in Trade, Economy and Business (LACEN) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), added that families now spend nearly three-quarters of the minimum wage to cover weekly groceries, up from earlier in the year.

Martínez cited additional factors affecting prices: increased demand for seafood and related supplies during Holy Week celebrations, a 5% depreciation of the peso against the dollar, and tariffs applied to countries without trade agreements with Mexico.

“In nine weeks, the cost of groceries increased from just over 550 pesos ($30.55) to about 790 pesos ($43.88), a jump of 236 pesos ($13.11),” Martínez detailed. “People buy less and merchants sell less; they don’t earn more. Someone who bought a kilogram of tomatoes in January now buys half a kilogram.”