Mexico City — Mexico officially began the 2026 tropical cyclone season on May 15 in the Pacific Ocean, with forecasters warning of extreme temperatures, heavy rains, and a possible transition to El Niño conditions in the coming months.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) predicts between 29 and 36 tropical systems across the Pacific and Atlantic basins this year, some of which could develop into major hurricanes.
In the Pacific, the SMN expects 18 to 21 tropical systems, with four to five potentially reaching Category 3, 4, or 5 strength. In the Atlantic, 11 to 15 systems are forecast, including up to two major hurricanes.
First Hurricane Names Announced
While it is too early to predict which system will become the first hurricane of the season, official naming lists are already set. If the first hurricane forms in the Pacific, it will be named Amanda. If it forms in the Atlantic, it will be called Arthur.
Subsequent names for the Pacific include Boris, Cristina, Douglas, and Elida. Atlantic names include Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
The SMN noted that names are assigned once a system reaches tropical storm strength. If sustained winds exceed 119 km/h (74 mph), the storm is officially classified as a hurricane while retaining the same name.
Understanding Tropical Cyclones
A tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system with rapidly rotating winds around a center. In the Northern Hemisphere, these systems rotate counterclockwise. Their classification depends on wind intensity: tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane.
The Saffir-Simpson scale ranks hurricanes from Category 1 (119-153 km/h) to Category 5 (over 252 km/h).
El Niño May Influence the Season
Experts are monitoring a possible transition to El Niño conditions between May and July, with a likelihood of strengthening during the peak season from August to October. El Niño can alter rainfall patterns and cyclone activity in both the Pacific and Atlantic.
The SMN’s extended forecast also predicts a weekend of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and extreme heat across much of the country. On Sunday, May 17, very heavy rain is expected in states including Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca, while a heat wave continues with temperatures up to 45°C (113°F) in northern, western, and southeastern regions.
Preventive Measures Activated
The National Civil Protection Coordination (CNPC) said it is working with all 32 states to reinforce preventive actions and emergency protocols. Measures include inspections of flood- and landslide-prone areas, drainage cleaning, and supervision of temporary shelters.
Authorities urged residents to keep drains and roofs clear, identify evacuation routes, and follow only official information from Civil Protection and the SMN.
The Pacific cyclone season runs from May 15 to November 30, while the Atlantic season begins June 1 and ends on the same date.
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