Cancun, Quintana Roo — The Caribbean Business Council (CCE) has warned that Quintana Roo is experiencing an atypical summer marked by a decline in tourist arrivals, a strong peso, rising operational costs, and economic uncertainty, though hotel investment projects continue.
Javier Olvera Silveira, outgoing president of the CCE, said in an interview that this summer has been particularly challenging compared to previous years. “We are living through a complex period. Unlike other years, this has not been a high-season summer as Cancun and the rest of the state usually see,” he said. “The drop in tourist arrivals is hitting us hard, and the economy feels tough. Although we are not in a crisis severe enough to see mass layoffs of 20% or 30% of staff, companies are squeezed and fighting internally to get by. We trust this scenario will be temporary.”
Olvera noted that expectations that the FIFA World Cup would boost tourism in the state did not materialize. “We bet a little on the World Cup thinking it would stimulate tourism, but it didn’t happen. Optimistic projections were made about tourist arrivals to Quintana Roo, and we did not see the expected impact. The pull of soccer took the economy, budgets, and travelers directly to host cities. As a destination, we were not on that map this summer, and it affected us directly. Still, I don’t see it as a failure; a great forecasting effort was made with a very generous campaign by the state government that we business leaders supported. We didn’t hit the mark this time, but we keep working.”
The strength of the Mexican peso is another major challenge. “Our state’s entire powerful economy is tied to the dollar. With an exchange rate around 17 pesos instead of 20, 21, or even 24 pesos, overall revenues immediately drop by 15% to 20%. That loss directly impacts profits and reduces the margin businesses have to pay loans or reinvest, all while fixed costs haven’t gone down,” Olvera explained.
He also highlighted the pressure from cumulative minimum wage increases. “On one hand, revenues are reduced by the exchange rate; on the other, we face substantial minimum wage hikes for workers. These increases seem very good and fair for the people, but after eight consecutive years, they have become a significant factor in operating costs. Combining both financial pressures represents a major adaptation challenge for all businesses.”
Despite the headwinds, Olvera said hotel investment projects are not being delayed. “We don’t see short-term projects being postponed because the state’s strength globally remains very important. The production and investment processes for a large hotel are multi-year; when construction time comes, the financial decision was made long ago. Moreover, current impacts vary by the age of the business: a hotel with 30 years of operation has a much harder time today than a new hotel with modern amenities. These difficult moments will pass; they won’t last forever. It’s part of tourism activity. We’ve had very good years, so our task is to keep working to remain competitive.”
On the recurring issue of sargassum seaweed, Olvera said it remains a serious challenge. “Sargassum is a very important issue that has been affecting us repeatedly. Like other external factors, it’s not something that can be predicted and has caught us off guard. However, over the past few years we have learned more or less how things go and we are understanding it little by little. Looking ahead, the next state administration will have a tremendous challenge here, and it will certainly have all the support, creativity, and commitment of the business sector to address it.”
Regarding the review of the USMCA trade agreement, Olvera expressed concern. “The annual review scheme we are falling into with the treaty with the United States and Canada worries us a lot. While it somewhat eases short-term tensions by giving established companies at least ten more years of operation, it completely halts new investments. With a review every year and a horizon of termination in a decade, business leaders think twice before putting their money: they hesitate whether to open another factory in Mexico or do it elsewhere. This prolonged uncertainty with the U.S. government affects us greatly; it stops future growth and is already causing large firms like Toyota to prefer taking their plants directly to the United States.”
Despite the financial pressures, Olvera said the business sector remains committed to competitiveness and anticipating challenges. The CCE alone brings together 4,500 companies that represent 75% of formal employment and contribute 62% of the state’s GDP.
