Pacific Tropical Depression Forecast to Become Hurricane Polo, Possibly Category 3

Mexico City — Tropical Depression 17-E formed Sunday south of the coasts of Colima and Michoacán and is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane named Polo, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported.

The system is forecast to reach Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale during the week, with wind gusts of up to 220 kilometers per hour (137 mph), according to the agency, which is part of the National Water Commission (Conagua).

Speaking at a news conference at SMN headquarters, coordinator Fabián Vázquez Romaña said the depression will track eastward over the next 24 to 48 hours before turning to run parallel to the Pacific coast.

He said the system is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Polo late Sunday night and early Monday. By Tuesday, Sept. 22, it could be a Category 2 hurricane with gusts of up to 195 km/h (121 mph), after which it may curve northwest, staying parallel to Mexico’s shoreline.

In its 6 p.m. advisory, the SMN placed the center of Tropical Depression 17-E about 390 kilometers (242 miles) south-southeast of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, and 450 kilometers (280 miles) south of Manzanillo, Colima.

Heavy Rain and High Waves Expected

The storm’s circulation is raising the likelihood of heavy to very heavy rainfall, between 50 and 75 millimeters, in Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero. Officials also warned of waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters (5 to 8 feet) along the coasts of Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca.

Conagua urged residents in the affected states to take extra precautions against rain, wind and high surf, including for maritime navigation, and to follow guidance issued by the National Civil Protection System in each state.

The depression is expected to become a tropical storm and later a hurricane of up to Category 3 as it moves through the region.

Mexico’s 2026 hurricane and tropical cyclone season in the Pacific began officially on May 15 and runs through Nov. 30.