Cancún, Quintana Roo — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is forecasting a 7% rise in global airfares in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in jet fuel costs that is already forcing airlines to cut routes and reduce frequencies to Mexico’s Caribbean coast.
Jet fuel prices in Mexico have soared more than 48% since February, reaching over 20 pesos per liter in April, according to reports from Aeropuertos y Servicios Auxiliares (ASA) and the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT). Though prices moderated slightly to around 16.90 pesos per liter by June, they remain well above early-2026 levels.
Given that fuel accounts for 25% to 35% of an airline’s operating costs, carriers are passing the expense to passengers, scaling back new routes, and trimming frequencies during low-demand seasons. Spirit Airlines and Magnicharters have already dropped certain routes, while others are adjusting schedules to the Mexican Caribbean to contain losses, said Quintana Roo Tourism Secretary Bernardo Cueto Riestra.
“The fuel price increase has forced airlines to make drastic operational decisions,” Cueto said. He noted, however, that Cancún International Airport continues to be one of Latin America’s busiest international hubs.
Rodrigo de la Peña Segura, president of the Cancún, Puerto Morelos and Isla Mujeres Hotel Association, said the slowdown in reservations reflects global market trends rather than a local issue.
IATA attributed the fuel price spike to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising international oil prices, and historically high refining margins. The association said the 7% fare increase would be one of the steepest since the post-pandemic recovery.
Despite higher costs, demand has not collapsed. In March 2026, Mexican airports handled nearly 10 million passengers, just 3% less than March 2025, while air cargo grew 8.2%, the IMT reported.
Industry experts say the main impact for tourist destinations like Cancún, Riviera Maya, Los Cabos, and Puerto Vallarta will be higher fares and tighter airline margins rather than a sharp drop in arrivals.
