Quintana Roo Economy Posts Six Straight Quarters of Decline, INEGI Says

Cancún, Quintana Roo — The economy of Quintana Roo has contracted for six consecutive quarters, with the state’s average annual growth falling 4.46 percent over the past three years, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

An analysis published by the newspaper El Economista placed Quintana Roo among the worst-performing states in Mexico, alongside Tabasco, which contracted an average of 4.76 percent annually, and Campeche, which fell 8.56 percent. Hidalgo led the country with average annual growth of 3.56 percent, followed by Chiapas (3.32 percent), Colima (2.92 percent) and Tamaulipas (2.12 percent).

Quintana Roo was Mexico’s fastest-growing economy in 2023, driven by heavy federal investment in the Maya Train rail project and the new Tulum international airport. The construction surge created a temporary boom, but the economy reversed sharply after the projects wound down. In the second quarter of 2025, the state’s economic activity contracted 9.4 percent year-on-year, and secondary activities — industry and construction — plunged 45.7 percent, according to INEGI’s State Economic Activity Indicator (ITAEE).

By the first quarter of 2026, economic activity had fallen 2.9 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, placing Quintana Roo 29th among Mexico’s 32 states. The slowdown has also pushed local inflation to 5.4 percent in June, the highest in the country, squeezing the purchasing power of a workforce once buoyed by construction jobs.

A sectoral breakdown of the first-quarter data shows the construction-led secondary sector fell 22.7 percent year-on-year, the sharpest drop in the country. The tertiary sector, which includes tourism and services, contracted 0.6 percent, leaving the state second-to-last nationally. The primary sector — agriculture, fishing and livestock — grew 26.7 percent, ranking sixth, but its modest share of the state’s economy was not enough to offset the broader decline.

The pace of contraction has gradually slowed. Quarterly declines measured 13.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, 8.9 percent in the second, 7.6 percent in the third, 5.2 percent in the fourth, and 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2026 — a trajectory that analysts describe as slow stabilization from a historic downturn.

The economic reversal has also brought social consequences, according to the report. Some property owners have been left with unpaid rent and utility bills by out-of-state workers who arrived for the Maya Train and Tulum airport projects and then left abruptly. The report also cites cases of children abandoned by fathers who returned to their home states, leaving mothers without support. It links the downturn to rising alcohol and drug use, as well as a deterioration in public safety.

The analysis describes the earlier expansion as “a fallacy” and says the INEGI figures confirm a deep economic and social crisis in Quintana Roo.