Morena Dominates Quintana Roo Poll, Key Candidates Neck and Neck

Mexico City — Voter intention by party places Morena with a wide and sustained advantage over the opposition in Quintana Roo, according to the most recent poll published by El Universal, which outlines a clearly favorable scenario for the party in government ahead of the 2027 electoral process.

According to the demographic exercise, Morena concentrates 39% of electoral preference, far above Movimiento Ciudadano (8%), PAN (7%), PRI (5%), PVEM (4%), and PT (2%), while 35% of those surveyed have not yet decided their vote.

The result shows that, even without a formal campaign, the party surpasses its closest competitor by more than four times, confirming a scenario of fragmentation and weakness in the opposition blocs, which are unable to build a competitive alternative for the electorate.

The Aspirants, Under Review

In the section on knowledge and opinion of possible candidates, the measurement reflects that no opposition profile manages to come close to the positioning levels recorded by Morena, which widens the gap between the dominant party and its adversaries.

Among the names evaluated appear figures from different parties, although without altering the structural advantage of the party, which maintains control of the scenario prior to the governmental succession.

By Candidates

The exercise reveals that, although Roberto Palazuelos, from Movimiento Ciudadano, is the aspirant most recognized by citizens, at 74%, he is also the one who generates the greatest rejection, registering a negative opinion balance of –17 points. This contrast underscores that high public recognition does not necessarily translate into electoral viability.

In contrast, the profiles from Morena concentrate the best differentials of positive opinion. Eugenio Segura leads this indicator with a favorable balance of +17, followed by Ana Patricia Peralta (+9), Estefanía Mercado (+5), and Rafael Marín Mollinedo (+1), which positions the governing party as the only bloc with figures perceived mostly positively.

In terms of recognition, Peralta (57%), Segura (48%), and Marybel Villegas (42%) are above the rest of the aspirants, while Mercado (30%), Mayuli Martínez Simón (23%), Diego Castañón (23%), and Marín (13%) appear with lower levels of positioning.

When asked if those surveyed could vote for each figure, the top places are occupied by Ana Patricia Peralta, with 33%, and Gino Segura, with 31%, both from Morena. Within the Morena-PT-PVEM bloc, internal preference confirms a technical tie between both profiles, with 22% for Segura and 20% for Peralta, a difference that remains within the poll’s margin of error. Although the senator registers a more favorable opinion balance, the poll does not allow establishing a definitive advantage between the two aspirants, who remain in similar conditions of electoral competitiveness.

Electoral Matchups

The electoral matchups reinforce the structural advantage of the party in government. In the simulated scenarios, Morena reaches its greatest margin with Gino Segura as a possible standard-bearer, with 58% of voting intention, compared to 13% for PAN-PRI and 10% for MC; with Ana Patricia Peralta, the governing coalition maintains the lead with 53%, compared to 13% and 13% from its main adversaries.