Mexican Caribbean to Lose 435,000 US Airline Seats by End of 2026

Cancún, Quintana Roo — Air connectivity between the United States and Mexico’s Caribbean coast will shrink sharply in the final quarter of 2026, with seat capacity falling 12.8 percent and flight operations dropping 13.3 percent compared with the same period last year.

The decline amounts to 435,691 fewer seats and 2,600 canceled operations, according to market monitoring by the Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC) at Universidad Anáhuac Cancún. The cutbacks hit all three international airports in Quintana Roo — Cancún, Cozumel and Tulum — and reduced availability could push some airfares higher.

Airlines Slash Schedules

American Airlines will cut 115,790 seats, leaving it with 829,429 available seats, a 12.3 percent drop from 2025. JetBlue will remove 76,532 seats, while United Airlines will trim 59,155 seats — a 7.4 percent reduction — to retain capacity of 735,237 seats.

Spirit Airlines accounts for the largest adjustment, dropping 198,880 seats. The carrier will suspend operations entirely during the October-to-December 2026 quarter and lists no available seats in its schedule for that period.

Earlier in the summer, the Mexican Caribbean already lost 900,000 seats from the United States, according to STARC, alongside a 22.5 percent contraction in air supply from North America in July and August.

Passenger Numbers Slide

Cancún International Airport handled 1.3 million fewer passengers between January and September 2026, a 5.9 percent decline that took traffic from 22.1 million to 20.8 million travelers. The international segment fell 6.5 percent.

September 23 was one of the weakest days of the year, with just 284 operations. The Mexican Caribbean Hotel Council estimates a loss of 800,000 seats — about 17 percent — between September and December, and projects another 500,000 fewer seats, or 5.3 percent, from January to April 2027.

Hotels and Restaurants Feel the Squeeze

Tourism operators, hoteliers and workers say the year has been defined by a steep drop in lodging occupancy and knock-on damage across the supply chain. They also say government agencies have no emergency support plan for an industry they credit with roughly 80 percent of Quintana Roo’s gross domestic product.

“When we talk about tourism, we are not talking only about hotels and beaches,” economic sector representatives said, noting that the industry also sustains restaurants, shops, transport, travel agencies, tour operators, suppliers, construction and thousands of small and medium-sized businesses.

Hotels report occupancy rates of 45 to 50 percent, below break-even levels, making it difficult to cover operating costs. Union organizations estimate that at least 24,967 jobs were lost in September and October, equivalent to 30 percent of their members.

Perla Flores Navarro, president of the National Chamber of the Restaurant and Seasoned Food Industry, said Cancún’s restaurant sector expects 2026 to close as one of its worst years, with many businesses in the red and profits down 50 to 70 percent.

Workers Lose Pay as Seasons Fade

Daniel Cruz, who works at a Cancún hotel, said he has not had a high season this year that would let him save for slower months. “Since April, occupancy has barely topped 60 percent, they apply ‘solidarity days’ and that shows up in our pay,” he said, referring to forced unpaid days off.

Esteban Cárdenas, who works at a marina in the Riviera Maya, said the practice began in August, during the summer high season. “Some weeks we only work four days, if we are lucky,” he said.

What Is Driving the Decline

STARC cites several factors behind the pullback: sargassum on the beaches, perceptions of insecurity, the strength of the peso against the dollar, competition from other Caribbean destinations, higher jet fuel costs and an increase in the Non-Resident Fee, which would rise from 983 pesos to 1,334.80 pesos per person under the 2027 proposal — a 36 percent jump.

The domestic market will partially offset the loss of international connections. Viva Aerobus will increase its winter capacity 5.2 percent with 1.5 million seats, while Volaris will cut its offering 3.4 percent and Aeroméxico 1.7 percent.