Mexican Caribbean Faces Sharp Drop in Summer Flights, Report Warns

Cancún, Quintana Roo — The Mexican Caribbean is facing a sharp reduction in air service this summer, with airlines cutting nearly 3,000 flights and more than 561,000 seats to Cancún, Cozumel and Tulum compared to the same period last year, according to a new report.

The study by the Center for Advanced Research in Sustainable Tourism (Starc) at Anáhuac Cancún University warns that the contraction — exceeding 22% in seats and 21% in flight operations — will drive up airfares and limit last-minute deals for travelers.

The report, part of the first Travel Sentiment Index, combines online search data, flight availability, economic conditions in source markets and social media sentiment to produce a score from 0 to 100. A score above 90 is considered excellent; 80-89 is resilient; 70-79 indicates price friction; and below 70 signals contraction.

Several major carriers have reduced their schedules to the region. American Airlines cut nearly 15% of its seats, United Airlines slashed almost 17%, and Spirit Airlines has completely exited these routes. Southwest Airlines is the only major carrier maintaining a stable offering, the report said.

The decline in connectivity poses a direct challenge for Quintana Roo’s tourism industry. Hotels and tour operators face stiffer competition for each booking as higher airfares make travelers more price-sensitive. The study notes that hotels will have to work with thinner margins on last-minute deals and may need to create more attractive packages or better communicate the destination’s value.

The report also highlights that sargassum seaweed continues to influence online conversations and could deter travel decisions if perceptions are not managed effectively.