Mexico City — The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remains “more alive than ever,” Mexican officials said Thursday, but the trade pact will now undergo annual reviews instead of a long-term extension.
Under the new framework, any country wishing to withdraw must give six months’ notice and secure approval from its Senate. Even then, the decision could be challenged in the Supreme Court, according to experts.
Senator Carlos Suárez of the ruling Morena party said he sees it as “very difficult” for the USMCA to end, at least during the current U.S. administration of Donald Trump.
“They are not canceling it, that is not their intention. Simply put, the plane had an autopilot button and they decided to turn it off; now they will pilot it manually,” Suárez said in an interview. “The treaty will not end. We still have the same unrestricted access to the market; products already covered by the treaty continue to receive the same treatment. That will not change.”
The shift came after the U.S. Trade Representative’s office declined to accept a 16-year extension. Some observers initially feared the deal was collapsing.
“This does not mean trade will stop, that tariffs will change, or that supply chains will end. That is not the case,” Suárez added. “The treaty in its current form still has 10 years of validity, and they reserve the possibility of reviewing it every year, or perhaps in a few months they may decide to renew it for another 16 years.”
Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said the worst-case scenario — one of the partners abandoning the pact — did not occur after Wednesday’s virtual meeting with counterparts. The new mechanism encourages countries to reach agreements at each review.
“We will meet every year until it is resolved,” Ebrard said.
On July 20, Mexico will host a U.S. delegation to begin defining the work plan for the annual USMCA process and advance pending issues.
Ebrard also noted that Mexico and Canada continue working under an action plan agreed during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to President Claudia Sheinbaum, aimed at strengthening trade and investment. Canada’s participation in future USMCA rounds will be defined in the coming weeks. “We have no elements of concern or trade barriers with Canada,” Ebrard said, adding that conversations continue under a previously established agenda.
