Trump’s Mexico Flight Rules: Will Prices Go Up?

Washington, D.C. — Tensions between Mexico and the United States have escalated as President Donald Trump, in his second term, has reignited a commercial aviation offensive that could directly impact travelers' wallets. From operational restrictions to trade sanctions, the pressing question now is: Will flight prices between Mexico and the U.S. increase?

New U.S. Aviation Sanctions Against Mexico

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), led by Sean P. Duffy, announced a series of measures against Mexico following accusations of practices that allegedly "distort competition." Among the primary allegations are the cancellation of time slots at Benito Juárez International Airport and the forced relocation of cargo flights since 2023, without the promised new airport infrastructure being delivered.

"México has significantly altered the playing field for airlines, reducing competition and granting unfair advantages to its operators," Duffy stated.

Measures That Could Raise Flight Costs

The actions set to take effect include:

• Mandatory schedule review: Mexican airlines must submit their itineraries for U.S. approval.
• Charter flight restrictions: Operators will require prior authorization.
• Withdrawal of antitrust immunity: The Delta–Aeroméxico alliance could lose benefits that currently allow them to coordinate prices and routes.

These measures may reduce flight availability, limit operational capacity, and increase uncertainty in both markets. As a result, prices could rise for both passenger tickets and cargo rates.

Uncertain Future for the Delta–Aeroméxico Alliance

One of the biggest risks is the potential revocation of antitrust immunity protecting the cooperation between Delta Airlines and Aeroméxico. If enacted, both companies would have to operate independently, fragmenting operations and making code-sharing flights less efficient.

While they could retain current flights and shareholder stakes, they would lose their primary competitive edge on one of the continent’s busiest binational routes.

Fewer Flights to the U.S.? Airlines Eye Other Destinations

The "Trump effect" extends beyond regulations. Consumer behavior is also shifting, with airlines noting declining interest in U.S. travel due to the Republican leader’s immigration policies and inflammatory remarks against countries like Canada.

According to Peter Cerda, director of the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA), European and Canadian carriers are rerouting flights toward Mexico and South America. The reason is simple: better profitability and less political uncertainty.

"They see Mexican destinations as a stronger business opportunity and a way to boost revenue," Cerda told Milenio.

What’s Next? Outlook for Mexico-U.S. Air Travel

While the sanctions are still being implemented, their impact on travelers, investors, and airlines could reshape the region’s air travel landscape. Mexico may emerge as a new hub for connections to Europe, South America, and Canada, while U.S. routes could become costlier, less accessible, and with reduced availability.

The aviation conflict reflects broader political and economic tensions between the two nations, underscoring that in volatile times, even an airplane ticket can become a luxury.