Mexico City — Sports betting has become one of organized crime’s preferred methods for money laundering, and the 2026 World Cup is no exception, according to a new analysis by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC).
Criminal groups have moved beyond traditional, regulated sportsbooks that require identity verification. They are now targeting prediction markets — platforms where users place sports bets and other wagers among themselves using cryptocurrencies.
These platforms operate with little to no regulation in many countries, including Mexico, offering anonymity that favors illicit activity.
How the scheme works
According to GI-TOC, criminal organizations create accounts on platforms that do not require identification and deposit illicit funds, which they first convert into cryptocurrencies. They then place sports bets against other users. The platform acts solely as an intermediary, matching bets and settling payments once the outcome is known.
Winnings are converted into stablecoins — digital assets pegged to the U.S. dollar — and later exchanged for any fiat currency. Before entering the formal financial system, the funds may pass through multiple tokens and digital wallets to obscure their trail.
“Without clear identity links, tracking who ultimately controls the funds entering and leaving the platform can be much more difficult than in traditional betting or banking environments,” GI-TOC said.
Prediction markets are also vulnerable to insider information and result manipulation. The report cited the capture of Nicolás Maduro, where a soldier won $400,000 on a prediction market, as an example of how inside knowledge can be exploited.
For the 2026 World Cup, the risk is heightened. In April, FIFA announced a partnership with ADI Predictstreet, which includes an integrity system to monitor suspicious activity.
Traditional sportsbooks still vulnerable
Conventional sportsbooks, despite regulation and identity checks, also face risks. Sophisticated schemes use networks of accounts to place compensatory bets that reduce loss probabilities and ensure withdrawal of the final balance.
In some cases, criminal groups use platforms operating without gambling licenses or authorization to provide financial services, complicating transaction monitoring and anti-money laundering controls.
“Transactions and betting profits from illicit funds move through a fragmented infrastructure that complicates oversight and makes comprehensive tracking difficult,” GI-TOC noted.
Organized crime also evades identity filters by using front men. In November 2025, Mexican authorities froze operations at 13 betting casinos suspected of ties to drug trafficking. Investigations revealed that students, low-income individuals, and people with no formal economic activity were used to simulate legitimate transactions. Funds later returned to operators through checks, service payments, or unverifiable purchases.
Massive betting volume expected
GI-TOC estimates that sports betting linked to the 2026 World Cup will exceed $50 billion, a significant increase from the $35 billion wagered during the 2022 tournament.
Polymarket, one of the best-known international prediction platforms, operates without specific regulation in many markets. Estimates indicate the platform reached a volume of nearly $9 billion in April 2026.
The main challenge, GI-TOC concluded, is that the identity of millions of account holders remains virtually hidden, posing a significant hurdle for authorities investigating illicit financial operations.
