Two Atlantic Low-Pressure Areas Watched; One Shows 40% Cyclone Chance

Quintana Roo — Meteorologists are monitoring two low-pressure areas over the Atlantic Ocean, one of which has a 40 percent chance of developing into a cyclone within seven days, according to the weather outlook issued for Sept. 23, 2026.

Both systems remain thousands of kilometers from Quintana Roo, so the report tracks their evolution and does not, for now, amount to a warning of direct impact on the state.

Where are the two low-pressure areas?

The first system sits southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, in open Atlantic waters. Its current outlook:

• 30 percent chance of cyclone development within 48 hours.
• 40 percent chance over the next seven days.
• Located roughly 7,610 kilometers (4,729 miles) east-southeast of Quintana Roo.

The second area lies in the northern central Atlantic and carries a lower chance of development:

• 20 percent chance of cyclone development within 48 hours.
• 20 percent chance over the next seven days.
• Located roughly 5,010 kilometers (3,113 miles) east-northeast of Quintana Roo.

Is there any risk to Quintana Roo?

Based on the current characteristics of both systems and their distance from the state, the report does not establish a direct impact for Quintana Roo.

The low-pressure areas will nonetheless remain under watch, because their conditions can change as they move across the Atlantic.

The percentage of cyclone development reflects the estimated probability that a system will take on the characteristics of a tropical cyclone within the stated period. It does not mean the system will necessarily become a tropical storm or a hurricane.

What does a cyclone development probability mean?

A low-pressure area is an atmospheric zone where pressure is relatively lower than in the surrounding environment. Under certain conditions of ocean temperature, humidity and atmospheric circulation, it can organize and evolve into a tropical system.

Such systems can pass through several stages, from a tropical disturbance to a depression, a tropical storm and, eventually, a hurricane.

A 40 percent probability over seven days, therefore, is not the same as forecasting a hurricane.

Quintana Roo stays alert during hurricane season

Tracking these systems matters because the Atlantic is in the middle of the tropical cyclone season.

The National Meteorological Service and the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) issue regular updates on the evolution of atmospheric systems.

Residents of Quintana Roo are advised to check official reports before sharing information about possible impacts, especially while the systems are still thousands of kilometers from the state.