Cancún Tourism Decline: Why Visitors Are Staying Away

Cancún, Mexico — During the first months of the year, Cancún and other tourist destinations in the Mexican Caribbean have recorded a decline in international visitors, raising alarms among experts and key representatives of Quintana Roo’s tourism sector.

Recent figures published by the Center for Advanced Research in Sustainable Tourism (STARC) at Anáhuac Cancún University reveal that Cancún International Airport saw a 9.1% drop in passenger traffic from January to March, equivalent to 373,792 fewer visitors compared to the same period in 2024. This downward trend extends to other Mexican beach destinations, including Los Cabos (-3.7%) and Puerto Vallarta (-5.2%), signaling a broader contraction in international tourism.

Factors Behind the Decline

Francisco Madrid, Director General of STARC, explained that the reduction in arrivals has been influenced by multiple factors affecting the region’s premier destination since last year. One key issue has been the rerouting of flights to other international airports in the state.

“It’s true that there has been a decline in tourist arrivals at Cancún’s airport, but it’s important to note that roughly half of this decrease has been offset by arrivals in Tulum. There’s a redirection effect with a significant portion of flights and passengers shifting to the new airport,” Madrid stated.

However, he warned that despite this partial absorption by Tulum’s airport, the numbers still reflect a concerning drop in international tourism, particularly from the U.S. market.

“We’re seeing a contraction in travelers from the United States, which has been our primary market. On the other hand, there’s unprecedented growth in Canadian arrivals, especially from Toronto and Montreal. But the challenge remains with U.S. travelers,” Madrid noted.

He attributed the decline in U.S. visitors to shifting consumer confidence, global economic conditions, and reduced flight availability due to Pratt & Whitney engine inspections affecting Airbus A320 aircraft operated by airlines like Volaris and Viva Aerobús.

Disappointing Easter Season Results

For businesses and tourism operators in the Mexican Caribbean, Easter week was a critical period to boost economic activity. However, results fell far below projections, leaving a bitter taste for service providers.

Hotel occupancy during Easter averaged 85% in Cancún, while Costa Mujeres and Puerto Morelos reached 82-83%. The Riviera Maya faced a more severe downturn, with Good Friday occupancy at 83.6%, significantly lower than the 90.7% recorded in 2024. By April 23, occupancy had dropped to just 73.5%.

Madrid pointed out that the timing of the holiday period played a major role in the underwhelming performance, as it coincided with the end of the international travel season, limiting the simultaneous influx of domestic and foreign tourists.

“This year, the vacation period fell in mid-April, which made a difference in expectations. Normally, when Easter is in March, we see a mix of international and national tourism. This time, it was too late in the international season to meet projections,” he explained.

He emphasized that the summer vacation period will be a crucial test for Quintana Roo’s tourism sector, requiring coordinated efforts and close market monitoring.

“Summer will be a key period where we must stay vigilant about market trends. We’re facing a complex environment with increasingly aggressive competition. The real test for the destination may still be ahead,” Madrid cautioned.

Tourism Fairs and the Reality Gap

Meanwhile, the Quintana Roo government has maintained an active presence at international tourism fairs, including FITUR and Tianguis Turístico. Yet, official promotional efforts have failed to reverse the decline in visitor numbers. Experts agree that the strategy must be reevaluated, focusing not only on attracting tourists but also on improving connectivity, diversifying offerings, and ensuring high-quality visitor experiences.

Restaurants Hit Hard by Tourism Slump

The restaurant sector has been among the hardest hit. Julio Villarreal, President of the National Chamber of the Restaurant and Seasoned Food Industry (Canirac) in Quintana Roo, warned of a potential technical recession in the industry during the second quarter of the year.

“Establishments have started reporting declines in customer spending and consumption,” Villarreal said.

During Easter, restaurant occupancy reached 80% in the first week but dropped to 70% in the second. From January to March, average occupancy hovered between 60-65%, well below profitability thresholds for many businesses.

In response, restaurateurs have turned to key dates like Children’s Day, Mother’s Day, and Teacher’s Day, offering promotions and affordable menus to stimulate local spending.

“Our goal is to remain competitive and attract both local customers and tourists,” Villarreal added.

International Competition Intensifies: Punta Cana Overtakes Cancún

Cancún lost its status as the top Spring Break destination for young Americans to Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, which has solidified its tourism growth after welcoming over 11 million international visitors in 2024.

At the third Annual Travel Forum in Jamaica, the Caribbean’s top-performing destinations were identified as Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cancún. Overall, the region saw a 13% increase in international arrivals, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

This shift highlights growing regional competition, with travelers increasingly seeking more affordable, diverse, and accessible experiences.

Key Factors Behind the Tourism Decline in the Mexican Caribbean

• Reduction in U.S. tourists
• Lack of air connectivity
• Competition from Punta Cana and Puerto Rico
• Oversupply of hotel rooms relative to demand
• Mismatch between promotional campaigns and actual tourism impact

First-Quarter 2025 Figures

• 9.1% decline at Cancún International Airport
• Cancún lost 373,792 international passengers compared to 2024
• Dominican Republic welcomed over 11 million tourists in 2024
• Declines in other destinations: Los Cabos (-3.7%), Puerto Vallarta (-5.2%)
• Easter hotel occupancy in Riviera Maya: 83% (vs. 90% in 2024)
• Restaurant occupancy in Quintana Roo: 60-65%