90% Chance of Cyclone Formation in Atlantic

Weather map showing current tropical cyclone disturbances and formation chances in the Atlantic Ocean as of September 16, 2025.$# CAPTION

QUINTANA ROO — The probability of a cyclone forming in the Atlantic in the coming days has increased to 90%, according to an update from the National Water Commission (Conagua) and the National Meteorological Service (SMN).

Quintana Roo Governor Mara Lezama Espinosa shared the report on her social media and reiterated the call for residents to stay informed.

"Permanent vigilance over meteorological activity in the Atlantic Ocean," she stated. "1. A zone of low pressure in the central Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. It has increased to a 90% probability for cyclonic development in 48 hours and maintains a 90% probability within 7 days. It is located…"

Vigilance Over the Atlantic and Developing Systems

According to the forecast, a zone of low pressure located in the central Atlantic, associated with a tropical wave, has elevated its probability of cyclonic development to 90% within 48 hours and within seven days.

The system is located approximately 4,920 kilometers east of the coast of Quintana Roo and is moving west-northwest at 16-24 km/h, with conditions favorable for evolving into a tropical cyclone shortly.

Furthermore, another zone of low pressure off the western coast of Africa maintains a 20% probability of cyclonic development over the next seven days, prompting authorities to maintain permanent vigilance.

"In the next three hours, strong #Rain with #Lightning is forecast for the #YucatanPeninsula," Conagua Clima reported.

Weather Conditions in Quintana Roo

Tropical wave number 33 and humidity from the Caribbean Sea will cause partly cloudy to overcast skies in Quintana Roo, along with very heavy rains, electrical storms, and winds of up to 50 km/h in coastal areas.

Finally, the environment will remain hot during the day and warm to hot at night.


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