Mexico’s 2026 World Cup Tax Windfall

Mexico City, Mexico — With increases to fees for foreign visitors, new payments for rights to visit museums and archaeological zones, and adjustments to the IEPS tax for soft drinks and betting, along with tax withholding for digital platforms offering services like lodging, food, and transportation, Mexico is preparing to score a fiscal goal during the 2026 World Cup. National and foreign fans are expected to generate a multi-billion dollar economic spillover and record-breaking revenue collection figures, even though the 2026 Economic Package did not factor in the soccer event or make projections for these additional treasury revenues.

The soccer tournament will run from June 11 to Sunday, July 19, 2026, with the 104 matches distributed across 16 cities in the three host countries: Mexico, the United States, and Canada, making the expectations not only sporting but fundamentally economic.

What the 2026 Economic Package Doesn't Say About the World Cup

According to Jonathan Hernández Reséndiz, a researcher at the Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria A.C. (CIEP), tax revenues from foreign visitors to Mexico alone could amount to 5,406 million pesos, and total revenue collection, when combined with fees from rights payments and updates to various taxes, could reach around 30,000 million pesos, based on very conservative estimates.

In an interview, he detailed some of the revenues that will be obtained not only from the collection of these rights and taxes but also from their updates timed for the 2026 fiscal year. "I wouldn't say it was completely because of the World Cup, but I would say that the fact we have a World Cup coming up was a significant factor, and many of the fees had not been updated. So, that was an incentive that made the government seek this update to take advantage of this event," commented the CIEP specialist.

Tourism Boom

In Mexico, the host cities for the World Cup are Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. So far, the Mexican government has maintained an optimistic but moderate stance regarding the number of visitors and economic spillover. According to the Secretaría de Turismo (Sectur), 5.5 million tourists are expected.

One of the fees updated for 2026 will be the payment of rights for foreign visitors without a work permit, which will increase from 860 pesos to 983 pesos per person. This is granted to individuals traveling for tourism, business, or some other non-remunerated activity.

"I think it is an adjustment to collect more for this right," explained Iván Benumea, coordinator of the Fiscal Justice program at Fundar. "If we apply the figure given by Sectur to the fee for a visitor without a work permit, we would have an estimated revenue of 5,406.5 million pesos for this concept," and that is based on conservative figures, stated Hernández Reséndiz.

He made this precision because that is the official figure for expected international tourists, at least for now. However, on October 13, in Jalisco, the Commissioner of the Federación Mexicana de Futbol, Mikel Arriola, stated that records would be broken. "We are expecting between 15 and 20 million additional visitors, more than 50,000 additional jobs. Qatar accumulated 19 billion eyes, and I am sure we will surpass that figure without any problem," he declared during the presentation of the FIFA Fan Fest for the Guadalajara venue.

While Sectur talks about 5.5 million visitors for the World Cup, in 2024 the country received 45 million international tourists. In the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 3.5% in tourists was already recorded compared to the same period last year.

The expected economic spillover is multi-billion dollar in services associated with tourism: lodging, restaurants, transportation, entertainment centers, and consumption of all types of services, not only in the three host cities but in other states, and not only from foreign tourists. All of this will represent more tax revenues.

An example is Quintana Roo, in the southeast, far from the tournament venues where no matches will be held, but which is preparing to play a role in the World Cup and break its own records. So far, two national teams will be hosted in hotels in that tourist destination, as the official list of Base Camps for the FIFA World Cup 2026 included the Mayakoba and Moon Palace hotels in Cancún and Playa del Carmen. The state's Secretary of Tourism announced that it will promote a FIFA-Fest to follow the entire world event from that destination, not only in restaurants and bars but with screens in public sites, meaning more revenue from taxes on lodging and consumption of food and beverages, in addition to tourist tours.

Visits to museums will also see an increase in the payment of rights for 2026. "The case of the adjustments for entries to museums and archaeological sites is related to the expected increase in tourism due to the World Cup. I would also link it to the same objectives of the Plan México, which seeks to strengthen tourism nationwide," highlighted Benumea.

In 2024, five new museums were inaugurated in southeastern Mexico to "optimize the experience" around the Tren Maya route, and all will have the highest fees for visitors, as a new Category IV was created in the 2026 Federal Rights Law for archaeological zones and museums. In this category, with the highest fee of 104.5 pesos per visitor, the archaeological zones and museums of Chichén Itzá, Uxmal, Dzibilchaltún, and the Museo del Pueblo Maya are now placed. Furthermore, the other three categories of museums distributed throughout the country will also see increases.

"It is likely that they detected that on the southeastern side, revenue collection from rights can be increased. Unfortunately, these increases in rights occur in a context of austerity in the Culture sector, as the budget for this secretariat will be reduced by 13%; on one hand, museums and archaeological zones will charge more, but at the same time, these places will have less budget available to strengthen their infrastructure and provide maintenance," warned the Fundar specialist.

Soccer-Loving and Soda-Drinking Mexico

Jonathan Hernández Reséndiz, a specialist at CIEP, explained other foreseeable revenues. Even with low figures, in a scenario where the World Cup triggers no more than a 10% increase in the consumption of all types of beverages—soft drinks, energy drinks, and alcohol—there would still be a revenue collection of 26,000 million pesos extra than what is foreseen in the 2026 PEF.

For 2026, for alcoholic beverages and beer, the SHCP expects to collect 81,518.8 million pesos, while this year it forecasts a closing figure of 78,724 million pesos. "A conservative scenario in which the consumption of these products increases by 10% would raise the revenue collection to 89,670.7 million pesos. Just from alcoholic beverages and beer," specified the CIEP representative.

For energy drinks, consumption of which could also increase during the sporting event, the expert recalled that authorities foresee collecting 100.2 million pesos, and for flavored beverages, 75,290 million pesos. "If we apply the same scenario as in the other two cases of a 10% increase, we would be collecting, for energy drinks, 110,000.22 million pesos and for flavored beverages 82,819 million pesos, just from consumption taxes under IEPS."

However, that 10% increase is expected to be far exceeded, and with it, the revenue collection as well. This expectation is based on data: Mexico is the most soda-consuming country in the world, and the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (INSP) estimates that each Mexican consumes an average of 163 liters of sugary drinks per year; on August 19, the Secretary of Health, David Kershenobich, even stated that it is now 166 liters per capita. According to the Undersecretary of Integration and Development of the Secretary of Health, Eduardo Clark, each year Mexicans drink 24,000 million liters of sugary drinks.

This was the reason for the increase in the IEPS on these products for 2026, a rate that had not been modified since 2010. "Here, more than betting on a product that will increase its consumption for one month, the increase was because it had been a long time without an update. Even with this adjustment, the tax burden on soft drinks remains below what international organizations recommend," pointed out Benumea from CIEP.

For 2026, an increase in the IEPS fee per liter for flavored beverages and those with added sugars, like juices and soft drinks, is planned, from 1.64 pesos per liter to 3.08 pesos per liter. It is expected that these so-called "healthy taxes" will discourage consumption through the pocketbook, but data indicates that soccer, the preferred sport of Mexicans, will be accompanied by soft drinks, which will increase tax revenues.

According to the market and consumption studies consultancy ACSI Research, in its study "Portrait of Current Mexico 2025," 81.2% of Mexicans prefer cola drinks (Coca-Cola, Pepsi Cola, and Big Cola). Another 12.7% of Mexicans prefer apple drinks, and only 1.5% prefer not to drink soda. Furthermore, it was detected that 50% of soda consumers did not modify their consumption, even when presented with products bearing the high-sugar warning labels. "Those who prefer the Coca-Cola brand maintained their consumption, while those who prefer Coca-Cola Light and Manzanita Sol decreased their consumption," according to the firm.

But both groups will face more taxes. Furthermore, Coca-Cola, as well as the alcoholic beverage distributor Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Buchanan's, Don Julio, among others), are the two beverage sponsors of the 2026 World Cup. And considering that Mexico remains a soccer-loving country—with 39.7% of preferences—there would not be a significant reduction in the consumption of these beverages, despite the tax increases. However, when it comes to alcoholic beverages, Mexicans prefer beer over other types of drinks. Consumption of all these types of products is forecast to be a source of fiscal resources.

Luck, Under Fiscal Scrutiny

Another key factor for the fiscal goal in 2026 will be the consumption of online games and raffles linked to the world cup, as well as the increased use of digital payment methods and intermediation platforms. Hernández Reséndiz, the CIEP expert, indicated: "doing the same simulation scenario of a 10% increase, the revenue collection would go from 5,024.7 million pesos to 5,527.17 million pesos," already with the updated rates.

The IEPS fees on services provided through digital devices, internet pages, and interfaces had not been modified since 2010 and in 2026 will have an update from 30% to 50%, so more revenue is expected from the boom in betting related to soccer.

Today, even without that sporting event, the income of that sector from casino games, lotteries, and other games of chance amounts to 42.2 billion pesos, according to the Censo Económico 2025 from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). Due to the application of IEPS and its adjustment for 2026 for these games with betting, a revenue collection of 3,704 million pesos in 2025 is expected to rise to 5,024 million, according to information from Hacienda.

The Secretaría de Hacienda proposed the adjustment to the IEPS rate for games with bets and raffles due to the "high risk of causing social, mental, and mainly economic damages among the population," but the reality is that it will represent significant income for public finances. This year, with non-updated rates, this sector represents 0.55% of GDP, while the revenue generated is only 0.01% of GDP.

Furthermore, it was approved to tax the conduct of games with bets and raffles by residents abroad without an establishment in Mexico who offer these services via the internet or digital means, which was not previously taxed. The Asociación de Permisionarios, Operadores y Proveedores de la Industria del Entretenimiento y Juego de Apuesta (AIEJA) "estimates that 60% of the betting websites operating on the internet, both national and foreign, do not comply with the requirements demanded by Mexican legislation to provide said services and do not pay taxes."

This was acknowledged by Hacienda in the justification of the new tax, whose rate will be 50% of the IEPS when those services are provided by residents abroad without an establishment in Mexico; they will be considered provided in national territory, and tax non-compliance will lead to the temporary blocking of access to the digital service.

That type of service, in turn, will trigger income from the use of digital channels, since according to the portal DataMéxico, from the Secretaría de Economía, in the industrial branch of casinos, lotteries, and other games of chance, in 87% of cases sales are made virtually.

Platforms for Lodging and Transportation

The use of digital intermediation platforms will also fuel greater collection of ISR and VAT in the World Cup year from the sale of goods and services that vendors carry out through Apps. For example, the Código Fiscal de la Federación was reformed with the objective of having total access to the operations of digital companies (Netflix, HBO Max, ViX, Prime Video), so the programming offered, including that related to the World Cup, will be more fiscally supervised in tax terms.

Additionally, for these and other types of services like lodging and transportation, an increase in the use of online payment methods is expected. Therefore, in the middle of the month, the digital platform Fútbol Financiero was launched, in conjunction with the Asociación de Bancos de México (ABM) and FIFA, since Visa is an official partner of that Federation.

That increase in digital payments will allow Hacienda to have greater control and tax collection.

In the 2026 economic package, however, a sort of revenue renunciation was included, explains Hernández Reséndiz of CIEP, as it was arranged to free individuals and legal entities participating in the organization, development, and execution of activities linked to the World Cup from tax and administrative burdens. This would be exclusively for large companies, construction firms, stadiums, or teams, he explains, or for service providers, and everything will be subject to rules. "There is a compensatory effect; that is, it is expected to lose, let's say, a renunciation in what is expected to be collected, but the benefit in tax revenues and economic spillover will be much greater," explained Hernández.

The Fundar specialist explains that the SAT still must regulate this program of tax benefits, for which it must issue general provisions. "What would be favorable, for the right of access to information, is that this program and its beneficiaries be fully transparent," commented Benumea.