Melissa’s Path: Haiti and Jamaica at Risk

Miami — Tropical Storm Melissa continues to move very slowly toward the east-southeast in the central Caribbean Sea, while reconnaissance aircraft from the Air Force investigate its structure. The system maintains maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour and threatens to intensify over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that Melissa could become a hurricane on Saturday and reach major hurricane status by Sunday, as it moves near or to the south of Jamaica at the beginning of next week.

Current Location and Movement

Currently, the center of the storm is located at 15.9°N and 75.0°W, approximately 300 kilometers southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 415 kilometers southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It is moving slowly toward the east-southeast at 2 km/h, with a minimum central pressure estimated at 1001 millibars.

Active Watches and Warnings

The NHC maintains a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for:

• Jamaica
• The southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince.

The agency warned that new hurricane warnings for Jamaica could be issued later this Friday.

Catastrophic Rains and Flooding

Melissa is forecast to produce 200 to 350 millimeters (8 to 14 inches) of rain in southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday night, with higher accumulations in mountainous areas.

The NHC alerted the public to catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in southern Haiti, in addition to severe impacts on coastal and urban communities in the southern Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

In northern Hispaniola and western Jamaica, 75 to 125 millimeters (3 to 5 inches) could be recorded, with a risk of urban flooding through Sunday.

Storm Surge and Surf

The forecast also anticipates dangerous surf affecting Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba, with the potential for significant storm surge along the southern coast of Jamaica early next week.

The NHC reiterated that the system's slow movement increases forecast uncertainty and could worsen the effects of rain and surf in the region.