Mexico’s Strategy After US Venezuela Intervention

Mexico City, Mexico — Following the recent United States attack in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum finds itself in a critical situation, attempting to balance the defense of national sovereignty with the need not to provoke the administration of Donald Trump, according to a report by The New York Times.

The End of ‘Bluster’ and the New Reality

For months, Mexican advisors considered that Trump’s threats about deploying troops on Mexican soil or conducting selective attacks against cartels were primarily “bluster.” It was believed that deep economic ties and security cooperation would protect the country from unilateral actions. However, after the military action in Venezuela, that assumption has been “shattered,” and senior officials admit that Mexico could be next on the list.

How Mexico Seeks to Balance the Message

According to sources cited by the New York newspaper, the Sheinbaum administration’s strategy for managing this crisis is based on the following pillars:

• Diplomacy of ‘threading the needle’: The president has attempted to reject U.S. military intervention by appealing to international law—such as citing the UN Charter on sovereignty—without using language that proves provocative to Trump.
• Absolute caution in communication: After a response from the White House where Trump stated that “the cartels run Mexico,” Sheinbaum’s team concluded that they must rethink their communication and proceed with extreme caution.
• High-level dialogue: The Mexican foreign minister has been ordered to establish direct contact with Secretary of State Marco Rubio to keep communication lines open.
• Monitoring of the U.S. narrative: The presidential team has gone so far as to track how frequently Mexico is mentioned in U.S. media, comparing it to other topics like Greenland, seeking to identify moments when the country falls out of the “spotlight.”

Actions Above Words

Faced with the risk that Trump uses the military threat as leverage in tariff negotiations and the review of the USMCA, Mexico has opted for an aggressive approach on security to demonstrate its commitment. This includes:

1. Reinforced border surveillance and the arrest of thousands of cartel members.
2. Massive fentanyl seizures and dismantling of laboratories.
3. Key extraditions: The government recently handed over at least 55 high-level traffickers sought by Washington.

Within the cabinet, there is strong disagreement about how vocal the condemnation of the attack in Venezuela should be. While some defend the doctrine of non-intervention, others fear that Sheinbaum’s public criticism could be counterproductive for the national economy.

As one Mexican official noted, the final strategy appears to be that “actions speak louder than words,” intensifying attacks against organized crime to mitigate the justification for external intervention.