U.S. Meat Shortage May Reopen Mexico Cattle Border

One year after the government of Donald Trump decided to close the export of national cattle to the United States due to the screwworm plague advancing in Mexican territory, the shortage of beef, high costs, and inflation in the United States could be the key to reopening the border, according to producers, specialists, and authorities.

Juan Carlos Anaya Castellanos, General Director of the Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), recalled that producers and ranchers on both sides of the border have a history of joint work spanning over 100 years, complementing each other in this food chain. Currently, the unilateral closure imposed by the U.S. government has generated economic losses in Mexico exceeding $837 million (15,461,859,150 pesos at the current exchange rate), and in the U.S., they have stopped producing 300,000 tons of beef.

The impact is because Mexico and the U.S. have a century of history in cattle trade, which complements the supply of feedlots, mainly in the southern U.S. states. It is regrettable the closure of the border that has prevented over one million head of cattle from going to the American market. This has prevented Mexican ranchers from receiving nearly one billion dollars in foreign exchange and has also had an impact for Americans because, without Mexican cattle, U.S. feedlots and packers have stopped producing 300,000 tons of meat, leading to historic price increases and impacting inflation, said the director of GCMA.

10,011 Cases of Myiasis from Screwworm, Mainly in 7,474 Cattle

On November 22, 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the closure of the 3,152-kilometer border with Mexico to cattle exports due to the Screwworm plague. Since then, in Mexico, the Servicio Nacional de Sanidad, Inocuidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria has confirmed 10,011 cases of myiasis, mainly in 7,474 cattle, but also in 1,197 dogs, 24 cats, and even in 64 humans.

The plague has advanced in 13 states: Chiapas (with 4,636 cases), Oaxaca (1,284), Yucatán (1,093), Veracruz (1,083), Tabasco (993), Campeche (620), Quintana Roo (235), Puebla (66), Nuevo León (2), Querétaro (2), Jalisco (1), and Morelos (1).

Short-Term Border Reopening Seen

Anaya said that this organization considers that the reopening of the border to cattle exports will occur in the short term because the protocols implemented by the USDA and the Secretaría de Agricultura have managed to detect, contain, and eradicate the outbreaks of screwworm.

The important thing is that the U.S. soon allows the reopening of the border to exports because there are already voices of U.S. ranchers and feedlot operators asking their government to open the border due to the shortage of cattle. They are being very affected, explained the specialist.

Now, the pressures for the reopening of the border come from North American producers and consumers, as besides the shortage of cattle, the price of beef is currently breaking records in the U.S., with an increase of almost 9% since January, according to the USDA, selling at $9.26 per pound (about 171 pesos per 453 grams).

According to the consumer price index, steak and ground beef increased in price by 12.4% and 10.3%, respectively, over the last year.

Juan Carlos Ochoa Valenzuela, president of the Unión Ganadera Regional de Sonora, agreed that the reopening of the border to exports could occur at the beginning of 2026 due to inflationary pressures.

That announcement Trump made about importing meat from Argentina pressured the U.S. industry a lot to open the border. Obviously, for them, live cattle from Sonora will always be a much better option than meat from other countries, assured Ochoa Valenzuela.

Currently, in Mexico, there are 941 active cases of the New World screwworm. To contain the advance of the plague, Senasica and APHIS have released 4 million sterile flies in the national territory.