Atlantic Basin — The first preliminary forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts near-average activity, with 14 named storms expected, according to an early projection released by the Tropical Storm Risk agency.
The forecast, based on data available through late November 2025, anticipates seven of those storms will become hurricanes, with three reaching major hurricane status. The season runs from June 1 to November 30.
TSR analysts noted that Atlantic sea surface temperatures are likely to remain above average, a condition that typically fuels more active cyclone development. However, the agency cautioned that long-range predictions carry significant uncertainty at this stage.
A key variable is the potential influence of El Niño, which has a 50 to 60 percent chance of affecting the peak season months from August through October. If El Niño develops, it could increase wind shear over the Atlantic, suppressing storm formation and intensity.
Meteorologists emphasized that this is an initial outlook and that updated forecasts from various agencies will begin in March, potentially revising the scenario. The National Hurricane Center will start issuing official tropical weather outlooks for the Atlantic on May 15, 2026.
The list of names for the 2026 Atlantic season includes: Arthur, Bertha, Cristóbal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
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