Canada Drives Mexican Caribbean Demand for Final Quarter of 2026

Cancún, Quintana Roo — Canada is emerging as the engine of the Mexican Caribbean’s autumn travel season, with airlines adding seats and flights while capacity from the United States contracts sharply.

Airline supply from Canada will grow 5.5% in seats and 8% in flights during the October-December quarter, according to the Travel Sentiment Index (TSI) for September to November.

That amounts to 66,351 additional seats and 471 additional flights compared with 2025, for a total of 1,276,979 two-way seats between Canada and the airports of Cancún, Cozumel and Tulum.

Porter Airlines Leads the Expansion

The increase is being driven by the expansion of Porter Airlines, which is growing 350.8% with 28,248 new seats, along with steady growth by WestJet in western Canada — particularly Calgary and Edmonton — and by Air Canada in Quebec and Ontario.

The TSI, produced by the Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC) at Universidad Anáhuac Cancún, ranks the eastern United States and Canada as the region with the greatest potential for the autumn, scoring 86.5 points out of 100.

Christmas Packages, and No Sargassum

Demand is focused on Christmas packages and all-inclusive plans departing from Toronto, with a booking window of 45 to 60 days and without the sargassum problem that slowed the summer season.

The outlook is reinforced by positive sentiment in digital listening, with favorable comments about beach quality and weather, as well as the effect of cold temperatures, which historically trigger a surge in searches for Mexican Caribbean destinations.

US and Mexican Markets

Mexico’s domestic market is nearly flat. Seats rise just 0.7% to 3,013,519, while flights fall 4.1%. Viva Aerobus holds more than half of the capacity, and no significant number of new seats is being added. Monterrey remains the most dynamic hub with 89 points, followed by Mexico City with 81 and Guadalajara with 75.

From the United States, supply to the Mexican Caribbean falls 12.8% in seats and 13.3% in flights for October-December.

Airline Schedules

• Air Canada: 377,507 seats, up 1.6% year over year.
• Porter Airlines: 72,600 seats, up 350% year over year.
• WestJet: 277,830 seats, up 0.6% year over year.
• Air Transat: 230,259 seats, with flights down 0.6% year over year.

STARC concludes that the season arrives with significant challenges. With the sargassum issue resolved and Canada’s push, it expects at least a partial recovery in demand, while the southern United States — particularly Texas, Georgia and Florida, with 84 points — remains the leading source market in the short term.