AI Predicts Outcome of U.S. Intervention in Mexico

Mexico — An analytical exercise conducted with artificial intelligence support has outlined a hypothetical scenario of what would occur if the United States attempted to intervene in Mexico in a manner similar to recent actions in Venezuela. The study considers military, economic, and social factors, concluding that while there is a clear power asymmetry, the cost would be extremely high for both nations.

According to the assessment conducted by Gemini AI, Mexico faces a tactical disadvantage against U.S. military capabilities, as its armed forces are primarily focused on internal security tasks and combating organized crime rather than large-scale conventional warfare.

The analysis noted that the country lacks advanced air defense systems and next-generation aviation, placing it in a vulnerable position against the technological superiority of the U.S. military, which could neutralize communications and air control in a short period.

However, the artificial intelligence highlights that economic factors serve as a strong deterrent. Unlike Venezuela, Mexico maintains deep commercial interdependence with the United States, particularly in strategic sectors such as automotive, food, and technology industries.

A military action would cause immediate disruption to supply chains that sustain key U.S. economic states like Texas and California, generating million-dollar losses and direct impacts on the neighboring country’s private sector.

The analysis also warns that the capture of a political figure like Claudia Sheinbaum could create an internal power vacuum that would be exploited by armed criminal groups, which have territorial experience and capacity to transform the conflict into a prolonged urban guerrilla war.

This instability scenario would complicate any attempt at control or administration following the conflict, exceeding the operational capacity of a foreign force or an interim government imposed after forceful action.

Another identified risk is a large-scale migration crisis, as millions of people could be displaced toward the northern border, creating a humanitarian emergency and unprecedented pressure on U.S. internal security.

In conclusion, the Gemini AI analysis maintains that economic integration and trade agreements, such as the USMCA, function as Mexico’s primary shield against an intervention scenario, as the economic, social, and political impact would be so high that it would render any operation of this type unfeasible for the North American power.