Tulum Real Estate Slump Post-Maya Train and Nomads

Tulum, Mexico — After several years of accelerated growth, Tulum’s real estate market is experiencing one of its most significant declines. Between 2023 and 2025, the average price of condominium apartments plummeted by 47.6%, according to sector specialists, an adjustment that reflects the end of the boom driven by the pandemic, an oversupply of developments, and the gradual departure of digital nomads who had energized demand.

According to the Mexican Association of Real Estate Professionals (AMPI), the slowdown is closely linked to the conclusion of the Maya Train construction, which during its execution generated temporary demand for housing and rentals. This is compounded by persistent deficiencies in municipal services such as paving, drainage, electricity supply, and internet.

“The government overextended in certain areas and could not react in time to all the projects that began construction. Basic infrastructure is lacking; there is investment to compensate for it,” explained Mario San Miguel, president of AMPI Tulum.

From Boom to Market Correction

Between 2021 and 2023, Tulum experienced an unprecedented wave of developments: over 80% of condominiums were sold in pre-sale, encouraged by promises of immediate vacation rentals and the massive arrival of construction companies, advisors, and buyers seeking quick returns.

The result was a speculative cycle that is now entering a correction phase. For sector entrepreneurs, the excess of projects exceeded the real absorption capacity of the local market.

Borja Luis Giquel, commercial director of Onix Living, acknowledged that the industry “choked” on overflowing growth. “After this cycle, Tulum will have more orderly growth,” he stated, noting that companies like his have already had to diversify into hospitality and residential housing.

Property Owners Between Financial Pressure and Rental Decline

The adjustment has particularly affected those who bought during the peak of the boom. For many, current rents do not cover the acquired loans.

“For many of us, it doesn’t even cover the mortgage. There are 30 m² studios that cost up to 3 million pesos and today are not rented. Many thought that digital nomads would be forever,” shared María, a buyer of an apartment financed by Infonavit in 2022.

The case of Aldea Tulum, with nearly 6,000 constructed apartments, is one of the most representative: the oversupply is evident, and demand no longer grows at the pace of recent years.

A New Future for Tulum: Growth with Limits

Despite the decline, experts agree that Tulum will not return to the explosive growth patterns that marked the last five years. However, they see a gradual recovery likely as long as:

• supply stabilizes;
• public services improve;
• and there is coordination between authorities, businesses, and citizens to organize urban development.

“The future of Tulum depends on establishing growth limits and organizing urban development,” concluded San Miguel.