U.S. Ends Hurricane Data Sharing, Risking Mexico’s Safety

United States — The Trump administration has announced it will cease sharing critical hurricane season information, a decision that experts warn will place Mexico at severe risk. Key tools that aided in forecasting Hurricane Erick’s rapid intensification along Mexico’s Pacific coast will no longer be available after June 30, leaving uncertainty about replacements as the Atlantic enters what is projected to be an unusually active hurricane season.

U.S. Halts Hurricane Data Sharing

The U.S. Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will stop accepting and distributing data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) as of June 30, according to an official notice. These readings have been instrumental in helping forecasters accurately predict rapid intensification—when a storm’s maximum wind speeds increase by at least 56 kilometers per hour within 24 hours.

Sudden strengthening of weak storms endangers coastal residents and complicates emergency resource allocation. In recent years, numerous storms have undergone rapid intensification, including last year’s Hurricane Milton, which escalated from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale in just over a day. NOAA projects this year’s hurricane season to be particularly intense.

Why Some Hurricanes Intensify So Rapidly

Hurricanes like Milton weakened before landfall, but others, such as Hurricane John last year, intensified just before impact, dumping nearly 145 centimeters of rain in parts of Mexico. Research suggests that as global temperatures rise, tropical systems are more likely to become powerful hurricanes through rapid intensification.

How U.S. Data Aided Hurricane Forecasting

DMSP data, accessible to researchers and meteorological agencies worldwide, allowed the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to observe storm interiors, unlike other satellites that only capture cloud-top imagery, explained Alan Gerard, a retired NOAA meteorologist. These readings helped forecasters detect processes like eyewall replacement cycles—similar to a snake shedding its skin—which can temporarily weaken storms before they regain strength.

“It’s a critical process to recognize,” Gerard said. “It halts rapid intensification. But once the cycle completes, intensification can resume.”

The DMSP, which launched its first satellite in 1962, is nearing the end of its operational life. While the Navy deployed a replacement weather satellite this year, it remains unclear whether federal forecasters will have access to its data. Military officials did not respond to requests for comment.

Forecasts Will Become More Difficult

In a Friday statement, NOAA Communications Director Kim Doster asserted that DMSP data is just one component of a “robust suite of hurricane modeling and forecasting tools.” She emphasized that NOAA’s models will continue incorporating data from other satellites, hurricane hunter aircraft, and additional sources.

“NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing comprehensive, cutting-edge datasets and models that ensure gold-standard weather forecasts for the American people,” Doster stated.

However, James Franklin, a retired NHC forecaster, countered that no existing tools can fully replace the DMSP sensors.

“When this data flow stops, the ability to see through clouds and observe a tropical cyclone’s internal structure and organization will be negatively impacted,” Franklin explained. This will delay rapid intensification forecasts as meteorologists rely on other visual cues.

“Forecasting will become harder and take longer,” he concluded.