Forecast Predicts Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes for 2026, El Niño to Impact Yucatan Peninsula

Mérida, Yucatán — With three months until the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, preliminary forecasts predict lower activity, though specialists urge continued vigilance and preparedness for the Yucatan Peninsula.

Meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís, coordinator of Meteored México, forecasts 12 tropical cyclones and fewer hurricanes, influenced by the El Niño climate pattern, which is also expected to bring less rainfall and a more intense midsummer drought, or “canicula,” to the region.

“Preliminary forecasts suggest this year the sky could give us a break in the Yucatan Peninsula,” Palma Solís said, “though the key, as always, will be not to let our guard down.”

Preliminary Atlantic Hurricane Forecast for 2026

Based on current trends, the Atlantic hurricane season—running from June 1 to November 30—is expected to be slightly less active than average. The key figures are:

• 12 tropical cyclones in total, compared to the normal average of 14.
• 5 hurricanes, with winds exceeding 120 km/h, fewer than the typical 7.
• 2 major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5 strength.

“Although a deficit in systems is projected, this difference is not a reason for carelessness, but for more focused preparation,” the specialist noted.

El Niño Phenomenon: Less Rain, Intense Midsummer Drought

The primary factor behind this forecast is the El Niño phenomenon, Palma Solís explained. With a probability of appearance exceeding 60% starting in July, this atmospheric event typically acts as a “brake” on storm formation in the Atlantic.

However, its presence also brings other local weather effects for the state:

• Less rainfall: A less rainy summer than usual is likely.
• More intense canícula: The midsummer drought period in July could be more prolonged and hotter.

Lesson Learned: Prevention Is the Best Ally

Palma Solís emphasized that the number of cyclones does not define the real risk, as history has shown that a single storm can transform a “quiet” season into one of major challenges.

“It doesn’t matter if there are twelve or if there are four; if a single major cyclone impacts our region, the season becomes catastrophic,” he said.

He recalled 2025, a year that seemed calm until Hurricane Melissa left deep impacts on Cuba and Jamaica. He also referenced Hurricane Isidore, which affected the Yucatan Peninsula precisely during a year under El Niño’s influence.

Culture of Prevention in the Yucatan Peninsula

“The inhabitants of the Peninsula are recognized for our admirable culture of prevention,” the meteorologist stated. The call for 2026 is to maintain that spirit by:

• Paying attention to official advisories from authorities.
• Following official forecasts.
• Remembering that even if nature grants a reprieve in quantity, readiness for any eventuality is essential.

“Prepared and well-informed, we make the difference!” he concluded.