Cyclone Risk Rising for Mexican Caribbean

QUINTANA ROO, Mexico — The 2025 Atlantic cyclone season remains active under constant surveillance as a low-pressure zone associated with a tropical wave in the tropical Atlantic maintains a 10 percent probability of developing into a cyclone within the next 48 hours. This probability could rise to 40 percent over a seven-day period.

The system, located approximately 3,670 kilometers east of the coast of Quintana Roo, is moving westward at an estimated speed of 32 to 40 km/h. The National Water Commission (Conagua) and the Quintana Roo State Civil Protection Coordination have issued a call for the population to remain attentive and prepare for scenarios that could evolve.

Although the current probability of immediate formation is low, meteorological models indicate a moderate increase in risk during the coming days as the system moves into the warmer waters of the Caribbean.

Official Recommendations for Coastal and Maritime Populations

Authorities recommend that coastal and maritime residents and visitors take the following precautions:

• Consult official sources before sailing or engaging in aquatic activities.
• Review local civil protection plans and evacuation routes.
• Remain alert to bulletins and notices issued by Conagua, Quintana Roo Civil Protection, or other competent meteorological institutions.

The Atlantic hurricane season continues until November 30. While this system does not currently represent a direct threat, its monitoring allows for the anticipation of potential impacts on the Yucatán Peninsula or the Mexican Caribbean later on.

International media also report that similar systems, designated as "Invest 98L" or other surveillance codes, have development probabilities of between 10 and 40 percent within seven days, which aligns with the assessment for the system currently being monitored by Conagua.