U.S. Ends Hurricane Data Sharing, Risking Mexico’s Safety

United States/Mexico — The Trump administration has announced it will cease sharing critical hurricane data that experts say is vital for storm forecasting across the Americas, including Mexico. This decision comes just ahead of what is projected to be an unusually intense Atlantic hurricane season, leaving countries like Mexico—highly vulnerable to tropical storms—with reduced tools to prepare and respond.

U.S. Halts DMSP Satellite Data

According to an official notice, the U.S. Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will no longer accept or distribute data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) as of June 30. These satellites have long provided global microwave readings essential for forecasting storms that rapidly intensify—where wind speeds spike by more than 56 km/h in just 24 hours.

This capability has been critical. For example, Hurricane Erick on Mexico’s Pacific coast was accurately tracked using this data. Last year, Hurricane Milton transformed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over 24 hours. While it weakened before landfall, storms like Hurricane John intensified just before reaching Mexico, dumping nearly 145 cm of rain in some areas. Scientists link this trend to climate change, as warming ocean waters fuel sudden intensification.

Forecasting Impacts of Losing DMSP Data

Unlike standard satellites that offer cloud-top images, DMSP provided a rare ability to “see through” clouds and observe internal storm structures. Alan Gerard, a retired NOAA meteorologist, explains that this helps detect processes like eyewall replacement cycles—a temporary weakening phase that often precedes renewed intensification. “It’s a critical process to recognize,” he said. “But once the cycle completes, intensification can resume.”

NOAA officials insist the agency still maintains a “robust suite” of forecasting tools. In a statement, Communications Director Kim Doster said that hurricane forecasts will continue relying on other satellites, aircraft, and ocean buoys. “NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing comprehensive, cutting-edge datasets and models that ensure gold-standard weather forecasts for the American people,” she stated.

However, experts disagree. James Franklin, a retired lead forecaster at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), emphasized that the DMSP data cannot be fully replaced. “Forecasting will become harder and take longer,” he warned. Without this data, meteorologists may miss early signs of rapid intensification, making it harder to issue timely warnings.

Regional Risks and Unclear Replacements

As of now, a replacement satellite from the U.S. Navy has been launched, but it remains uncertain whether NOAA or foreign meteorological agencies will be granted access to its data. Military officials have not responded to public inquiries. The decision to cut off DMSP data also comes as NOAA itself has been affected by staffing and budget limitations, raising questions about operational readiness during what is forecasted to be a highly active hurricane season.

Mexico, heavily impacted by both Pacific and Atlantic storms, relies on U.S. satellite intelligence for early warnings and preparedness. With the loss of DMSP data and no clear international replacement mechanism in place, meteorologists and emergency planners throughout Latin America may find themselves operating with less warning and lower accuracy—just as the climate crisis fuels more intense storms.