Canadian Tourism Surges in Mexican Caribbean as U.S. Numbers Fall

Cancún, Quintana Roo — The Mexican Caribbean is beginning to reconfigure its international tourism map. While the number of U.S. visitors remains below 2024 levels, Canadian tourism shows sustained growth, positioning it as one of the pillars of the sector in the region.

According to Francisco Madrid Flores, director of the Center for Advanced Research in Sustainable Tourism (STARC) at Anáhuac Cancún University, tourists from Canada registered an increase of between 12 and 13 percent during 2025, helping to compensate for the slowdown from the main source market: the United States.

“The Canadian market has become a key support for the Mexican Caribbean. Its growth allows for progress in diversification and reduces dependence on U.S. tourism,” noted Madrid Flores.

In contrast, U.S. tourism in Quintana Roo did not manage to recover the levels reached in 2024. While it is not an abrupt fall, there is a notable decrease. Despite U.S. tourism continuing to travel abroad with 3% annual growth, competition with other international destinations is increasingly intense.

From January to October, the federal Tourism Ministry reported that the country registered 38.4 million international tourists (who stay at least one night), representing almost 6% more than the previous year, and 100.4 million international visitors in total, according to official figures.

This situation directly impacted Cancún International Airport, which during 2025 recorded a 3.5% drop in the number of international passengers compared to the previous year, reports STARC. However, Madrid Flores highlighted that in the last quarter of the year a slight recovery began to be observed, opening the possibility of better performance in 2026.

In total, it is projected that the Mexican Caribbean could achieve 5% growth in 2026, which would mean the arrival of approximately one million additional tourists to reach 21 million visitors.

This recovery would be supported by factors such as the rebound in air connectivity, the boost from international events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the possible entry into operation of the digital visa for the Brazilian market.

However, challenges persist in key markets like South America, due to migration restrictions, limited air seat supply, and the absence of federal tourism promotion, which continues to affect the overall industry landscape.

Even so, the advance of Canadian tourism represents an encouraging signal in a complex context.

According to Madrid Flores, this behavior shows how certain markets can react favorably to more stable conditions, such as economic recovery and the gradual opening of air connectivity.

In contrast with the slow national growth, estimated between 1% and 1.5%, the Mexican Caribbean seems to find a clearer path toward recovery, largely thanks to its growing appeal for Canadian visitors.