Tulum Real Estate Needs More Intelligence, Less Speculation

Tulum, Mexico — For several years, Tulum has established itself as one of the most dynamic and attractive real estate destinations in the country, driven by international tourism and expectations of high returns on properties intended for vacation rentals. However, it currently faces an adjustment phase, marked by high inventory and slow absorption.

According to the Property Tracker report from the firm The Red Search regarding pre-construction condominiums in Quintana Roo and Yucatán, Tulum concentrates 303 active real estate developments and 11,295 units in inventory, making it the largest in the entire region.

In this scenario, from January to October of this year, 937 units were sold, representing an absorption rate of 8.3%, one of the lowest in the tourist corridor, only higher than Bacalar and the Costa Yucateca.

In contrast, other markets in the same region report a better balance between supply and demand, such as Playa del Carmen, which recorded an absorption rate of 12.6% in the same period, while the city of Yucatán and Cozumel exceeded 17 percent.

These figures reflect a mismatch between volume and placement pace, due to an oversupply of studios and small apartments, especially designed for vacation rental investors, who currently face aggressive competition and downward pressure on prices and returns.

“We are seeing the natural maturation of a market that grew very quickly. The opportunity now is to correct the course, not to point fingers. Tulum remains an extraordinary destination, but its next chapter requires more intelligence and less speculation,” said Helena Verron, general director of The Smart Flat.

For Verron, the growth in inventory combined with a change in the tourist profile has led to slower absorption and competition based on incentives and promised returns that do not necessarily materialize. According to the specialist, promised returns range between 8% and 14% annually; however, they are not always fulfilled.

“The ecosystem faces trust challenges, with a growing number of projects experiencing delayed deliveries and even halted construction. The lack of liquidity of some developers and municipal regulation still under development have left some buyers in a situation of uncertainty, eroding confidence in the market,” highlighted Verron.

Infrastructure: Gradual Impact

For the specialist, infrastructure projects developed around the Tulum area have had a more gradual impact than expected on the region’s real estate sector, especially in the short-term rental market.

According to Verron, while their relevance for the long-term development of the destination is undeniable, their effects on occupancy and returns have not been automatic, so there must now be greater selectivity.

“It is about managing expectations and promoting quality growth. Tulum has the potential to build a more solid new stage, but it requires coordination, clear rules, and a long-term vision,” she pointed out.

For Verron, the bet should focus on developers with proven track records, areas with well-defined land uses, and projects that diversify the offer beyond the standard studio, with an offer oriented toward permanent residents or higher-value lodging experiences.