Mexico’s Judicial Election Sees 90% Voter Abstention

Chetumal, Quintana Roo — As the vote count for Sunday’s judicial election began, early data on citizen participation painted a stark picture: an overwhelming majority of Mexicans and Quintana Roo residents chose not to cast ballots in a process widely perceived as unclear, uninteresting, or illegitimate.

By 11 p.m. Quintana Roo time—five hours into the tally for Supreme Court justices—only 8.8% of registered voters nationwide had participated, according to preliminary results from counted polling stations.

Historic Low Turnout

If this trend holds, fewer than 9 million of Mexico’s 100.5 million eligible voters would have participated, marking a staggering abstention rate exceeding 90%. The contrast is sharp compared to the 2024 general elections, where over 60 million Mexicans voted, underscoring widespread disengagement with the judicial election.

The results also suggest that less than 9% of the electorate decided key judicial appointments for both federal and state courts, with winning candidates securing vote shares so low they would fail to meet thresholds for political party registration or legislative representation.

Leading Candidates with Minimal Support

In early tallies from major urban centers, Lenia Batres Guadarrama—the top candidate endorsed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and the ruling Morena party—led with just 4.6% of votes. Other administration-backed candidates, Yazmín Esquivel Mossa and Loreta Ortiz Ahlf, trailed with 3.79% and 3.74%, respectively. Among male candidates, indigenous rights lawyer Hugo Aguilar Ortiz, also promoted in pre-election materials, led with 4.7%.

Quintana Roo’s Delayed Count

In Quintana Roo, vote counting lagged significantly. The state’s Federal District 1, based in Playa del Carmen, had not begun tallying ballots as of reporting time. Initial participation rates in Districts 2 (Chetumal) and the two Cancún-based districts averaged 12%, though this figure was inflated by near-universal turnout in early voting among registered voters with mobility challenges.

Breakdowns showed 14% participation in southern and Maya-majority zones, 13% in Cancún’s District 3, and 9% in Cancún’s District 4. At best, turnout would not exceed 182,000 voters—far below the 600,000 who participated in 2024’s elections or the 500,000 votes Sheinbaum received in the state.

A Rejection of Political Narratives

The abstention surge undermines claims of broad public support for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s “Plan C” judicial reforms. With López Obrador no longer actively campaigning, the results suggest most citizens simply disregarded the election.

The low participation also highlights the limits of Morena’s ability to mobilize voters through social programs or coercion, delivering a blunt rebuttal to the narrative of sustained popular backing for the administration’s agenda.