Mexican Oil Surpasses $100 per Barrel as Global Prices Rise

Mexico City — Mexico’s export oil blend surpassed $100 per barrel on Friday, according to state oil company Pemex, as global crude prices continue to climb.

The Mexican oil blend reached $100.01 per barrel, exceeding the $54.90 per barrel average projected by Congress for all of 2026 by $45.11. According to the Finance Ministry, each additional dollar in oil prices generates an extra 11.6 billion pesos in public revenue.

At current elevated prices, the additional revenue could reach 523.276 billion pesos.

International Market

West Texas Intermediate crude closed the week at $100.17 per barrel, a weekly gain of 1.97%. Banco Base reported that WTI crossed the $100 threshold, reaching a high of $101.67 per barrel on Monday, March 23—a level not seen since March 9 when oil rose to $113.41 per barrel. Since February 27, this commodity has accumulated a 49.75% increase.

Brent crude ended the week at $113.83 per barrel, with a weekly advance of 1.46%. Brent has maintained prices above $100 per barrel for four consecutive sessions and has risen 56.25% since the war began.

European natural gas closed the week at 54.18 euros per MWh, with a weekly loss of 8.57%. It touched a low of 48.75 euros per MWh during the week, a level not seen since March 13. European natural gas has accumulated a 69.52% increase since the war started.

Fuel Price Controls

President Claudia Sheinbaum has guaranteed a maximum price of 24 pesos per liter for regular gasoline and announced she will meet with Finance Ministry officials on Monday to address this issue. She said the government will use protection mechanisms “if necessary” to prevent gasoline price increases.

Tax Stimulus Impact

The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness noted that if oil prices average $90 per barrel for the year—compared to $89.2 in 2022—additional oil revenues could reach approximately 406 billion pesos.

“However, this benefit could be reversed if the Federal Government reactivates IEPS tax incentives to contain inflation in gasoline prices, as occurred in 2022,” the institute stated.

IMCO, led by Valeria Moy, highlighted that oil prices already exceed the 2026 Economic Package estimate of $54.9 per barrel, with current prices above $80 per barrel.

The institute added that while more expensive crude means higher revenues, the benefit diminishes if the government activates IEPS incentives to contain gasoline prices. “In 2022, the cost of incentives reached 395.4 billion pesos and practically canceled out additional oil revenues of 394.5 billion pesos,” IMCO emphasized.

Current Fuel Subsidies

For the period from March 28 to April 3, 2026, the tax incentive percentages for automotive fuels are:

• Diesel: 70.28% subsidy, equivalent to 5.1749 pesos per liter
• Regular gasoline (less than 91 octane): 23.12% subsidy, representing 1.5493 pesos per liter
• Premium gasoline (91 octane or higher) and non-fossil fuels: 7.97% subsidy, equivalent to 0.4507 pesos per liter