Mexico’s New Climate Reality: Extreme Rains

Mexico — Climate change is already present in Mexico and can be noted in the modifications of atmospheric weather patterns, which provoke intense rains and extreme weather events, leaving authorities with a smaller margin of response. As ocean temperatures rise, the necessary humidity conditions are created to generate storms and hurricanes, compounded by natural phenomena like La Niña or El Niño that create increasingly extreme variations, leading to rains like those of October 9 in Veracruz, Puebla, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, and Querétaro.

This is the warning from specialists and environmental organizations that, for years, have highlighted the effects of climate change in Mexico: torrential rains, overflowing rivers, strong winds, fires, floods, landslides, loss of life—both human and other living beings—and displaced and isolated communities, primarily during catastrophes like hurricanes and droughts.

A Concentrated and Intensified Phenomenon

Evelyn Aguirre, an Environmental Engineer from the Metropolitan Autonomous University (UAM), explained that with an increase in global temperature, a greater amount of water is concentrated in the atmosphere, leading to the formation of gigantic clouds whose rain falls unevenly. She detailed that previously, rainfall distribution would cover an entire region, but now there is excessive precipitation in specific points.

When biogeochemical cycles, and especially the water cycle, are affected, she continued, floods occur and the frequency of torrential rains, cyclones, and tropical storms increases. "Although it seems counterintuitive, droughts also contribute to more flooding because when there are droughts, the soil has lower permeability, meaning less water filters through. When it rains as it has been raining now, what happens is that the water does not filter into the soil and subsoil but remains on the surface," she said.

Lack of Urban and Climate Planning

Alberto Alarcón, from the Mexican Center for Environmental Law (Cemda), stated that the events in Mexico City and other affected states are a consequence of poor urban and climate adaptation planning, which adds to the impacts of precipitation levels, modifications of the water cycle, and extreme climates.

"We are going to have much stronger drought cycles and much more intense rains, and part of urban planning has to do with the lack of risk prevention and strategies to cover losses and damages. Rivers and dams must be monitored, especially those near populations, Civil Protection must update risk atlases; this is how very important human and material losses could be prevented," he added.

Increasingly Complex Impacts and Responses

Heber Vázquez, a researcher from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), reported that in the last 50 years, there has been an increase in flood reports between the months of July and September. "There is some correlation with the amount of rainfall, but what is indicated is that populations are increasingly less prepared for this type of event."

"The impacts and especially the type of response given to phenomena with the exacerbation of climate change is becoming increasingly complex. We have to be capable of responding to phenomena of magnitudes that did not exist before, with frequencies that did not exist before, and that makes it very complicated," pointed out Pablo Ramírez, coordinator of the energy and climate change program at Greenpeace Mexico.

In an interview with this media outlet, he mentioned that global warming causes climate patterns to become atypical, so the systems that existed for seasonal rains no longer respond. "Far from improving, it is worsening, and if we do not do something, it will worsen year after year, and what we are seeing and what is atypical for the authorities will only become more exacerbated. It is fundamental that the country's policies align and begin to place these types of phenomena, which are a priority for the entire world, at that level of urgency," he stated.

Authorities Facing Climate Change

Regarding governmental discourses from the last week about atypical and unpredictable rains, Evelyn Aguirre expressed that the National Atlas of Risks indicates that Poza Rica, Veracruz, and the Sierra Norte of Puebla are mapped as risk zones due to the constant floods they present each year.

"The government was very slow, ineffective, and a mockery, because Conagua warned in its forecasts of very high precipitation. They had time to evacuate, to warn, to prevent, but they did not do it, and that is a political decision; it was known it was going to happen and the decision was made to do nothing, that is the reality. How can they say it cannot be forecast? These are not earthquakes; they are rains," she said.

On the other hand, Pablo Ramírez deemed it necessary to reallocate economic resources, as the General Law on Climate Change (found in transversal annex number 16 of the federal expenditure budget) clearly orders that there must be a budget allocation destined to address this phenomenon in Mexico.

"The big problem is that this budget has been used as a sort of petty cash for anything except for taking adaptation and prevention measures for climate change. Gas pipelines have been built, highways have been built, the Tren Maya was built, for example, which, far from helping us adapt, is destroying ecosystems that allow us to be more resilient," he stated.

Is Technological Equipment Sufficient to Detect Phenomena?

Ramírez indicated that adaptation and prevention policies for these types of climate risks have not developed at the same pace as the risks in the country. One reason is capacity building: having monitoring systems that allow for knowing what is coming and, above all, preventing, to be able to alert with civil protection protocols that allow people and their properties to be safe in such situations.

"This type of system has not served to alert, and when the systems exist, the alerts have not been given. This speaks to a lack of synchronicity between protocols, a lack of communication between the authorities," he added.

He lamented that the authorities do not obey the available information, which is why early warning systems do not function, just like civil protection protocols. "What fails are the decisions and the interpretation, but above all the decisions that are made with the studies that are done, because the study can be excellent, but if you do not use the instrument to make decisions and create public policy, it does not matter how incredible the human and technological equipment is, if you are not going to use it for what it is for, which is to make intelligent decisions," added Aguirre López.

Heber Vázquez described the climate as something complex, as meteorological reports only have a certain forecast horizon and exist with a certain degree of probability.