Peso Rises Ahead of Sheinbaum’s First Address

MEXICO CITY — On Monday, September 1, 2025, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Mexico opened with a retreat, trading at an average of $18.61 pesos per unit. This represents a 0.25 percent decline from the previous closing rate of $18.66. The American currency lost strength against the peso in a context marked by anticipation for the first government address by Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president of Mexico.

Political and Economic Context

The peso's performance is not solely a response to market forces but also to the political narrative. With high approval ratings, Sheinbaum arrives at her first address with the promise of continuity in social programs, but also with challenges: increased fiscal spending, a drop in remittances, and volatility in the United States, where Donald Trump's policies have again generated uncertainty.

Financial analyst Felipe Mendoza explained that the peso's strength is largely sustained by the discipline of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), although the margin for appreciation remains limited.

Banxico's Strategy

The Bank of Mexico reaffirmed its policy of gradual interest rate cuts, currently at 7.75 percent, with a data-dependent focus. This means the priority continues to be controlling inflation without compromising the stability of the exchange rate.

Investors are also paying attention to the upcoming remittance report, which have remained stable despite migratory obstacles, as well as U.S. labor indicators, which will influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision on interest rates.

The Peso's Performance in 2025

Over the last seven days, the dollar has accumulated a 0.35 percent decline, while over the last year it maintains a depreciation of 4.19 percent. Recent volatility is lower than the 2024 average, reflecting a period of greater stability.

Banxico estimates the dollar will average between $20.24 and $20.69 pesos in 2025, a prudent forecast given political volatility and trade relations with the United States.

The Mexican Peso in Perspective

The Mexican peso continues to consolidate its position as one of the most traded currencies in the world and the strongest in Latin America. Its history, marked by resilience, is once again taking center stage in a scenario where politics, economics, and markets intertwine.