Quintana Roo’s Severe Drought and Heat Wave Forecast

CHETUMAL — The National Water Commission (Conagua) in Quintana Roo has issued a series of recommendations in response to forecasts of impending intense drought conditions for the state. The agency stated that it is essential to take extreme precautions, as forecasts initially focused on the northern zone but indicate a probability of extending southward.

The director of Conagua, Erika Ramírez, provided the assessment. She indicated that some above-average rainfall may be recorded during March and April. However, the most critical period is expected to begin in May with a drier scenario and high temperatures, which could impact agricultural soils and the livestock sector. Therefore, she said, it is important to prepare to face this upcoming season.

"The municipalities of Lázaro Cárdenas and Benito Juárez in northern Quintana Roo are currently experiencing abnormal drought conditions, which could gradually extend to the southern part of the state as the hot season progresses," said Ramírez. "This would exacerbate the drought starting around May, as rainfall is expected. We maintain constant monitoring of the climate, and that is precisely what has indicated to us that there will be abnormal dry conditions in those municipalities."

She indicated that the agency carries out permanent monitoring and works in coordination with other state agencies to prevent greater damage in sectors that depend on the weather, so making the relevant suggestions would reduce the damage that producers usually report.

The agency also warned about the arrival of the dog days of summer, a phenomenon characterized by high temperatures and low rainfall. This period is expected to occur this year between June and August, with the state's location in the southeast region making it particularly prone to intense heat during those dates.

"We are also concerned about the heat wave that will occur during the months of June, July and August, a phenomenon that is characterized by periods of intense heat and a temporary decrease in rainfall," Ramírez stated. "So we are monitoring the situation to assess its impact on the region and make the appropriate recommendations."

However, she specified that the impact of the heat wave varies from year to year. For example, in 2025 it lasted 70 days, so the effects will depend on variable atmospheric conditions.