Mexicans to Pay 2,000 Extra Pesos in 2026 Taxes

Mexico — The 2026 Economic Package projects an increase in the tax burden for Mexicans. According to an analysis by México Evalúa, each taxpayer will pay an average of 2,023 pesos more in taxes compared to 2025.

In total, the average payment per person will reach 43,439 pesos, which represents an increase of 4.9 percent from the previous year.

The Ministry of Finance reiterated that the update to the withholding rates proposed in the 2026 Economic Package does not imply a tax increase for savers.

"The implications of paying more taxes include an increase in the cost of living and of products, as well as a greater burden for taxpayers that will, in part, finance support for Pemex," commented Jorge Cano, coordinator of the Public Spending Program at México Evalúa.

The study underscores that the increase responds principally to the projected growth in the collection of Income Tax (ISR) and Value-Added Tax (VAT), driven by greater economic activity and by fiscal efficiency measures proposed by the Ministry of Finance.

The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) estimates tax revenues of 5.8 trillion pesos. This is a growth of 6.5 percent, or 358 billion pesos more compared to what was approved for 2025. With this, the collection of taxes would reach a historic maximum of 15.1 percent of the GDP for 2026.

Context

Despite President Claudia Sheinbaum's assurance that there would be no new taxes, the 2026 Economic Package contemplates increases in various categories, which will represent a blow to the pockets of Mexicans who will have to pay more to visit museums, and on the purchase of tobacco, soft drinks, games, raffles, video games, among other items.

Inflationary Pressures Will Increase

Janeth Quiroz, director of economic analysis at Monex, indicated that the implementation of the new taxes in 2026 will create inflationary pressures in the country, particularly due to the type of products that will be taxed and their incidence in household consumption.

Quiroz explained that goods maintain a significant weight within the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), as they reflect the goods with the greatest representation in the basic basket. In September, the annual general inflation, which stood at 3.76 percent, was explained in 41.9 percent by the category of goods.

"Within this, foods, beverages, and tobacco were located, which, together, explained 26.4 percent of the annual increase of the INPC, precisely the segment that will face a greater tax burden next year," warned the specialist.

Starting in 2026, the tax on soft drinks and sugary beverages will increase from 1.6451 to 3.0818 pesos per liter, practically doubling, while the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on cigarettes will be gradually increased over the next five years, moving from 160 percent to 200 percent.

Furthermore, oral rehydration salts that do not comply with WHO standards will receive an additional levy of 3.08 pesos per liter.

"These products have a high sensitivity in consumer prices, so their increased cost will be transferred directly to inflation," highlighted the Monex executive.

VAT on Platforms, More Pressure

Quiroz indicated that, additionally, the withholding of 10.5 percent of the income of sellers on digital platforms could have an additional effect on inflation, considering that e-commerce represents close to 16 percent of total retail sales in Mexico.

"In addition to these pressures, the impact of tariffs on imports originating from China, which represent approximately 21.0 percent of Mexico's total imports, would be added."

According to Cano, while the 2026 Economic Package does not include a tax reform that modifies the collection structure of the two main levies—the Income Tax (ISR) and the Value-Added Tax (VAT)—nor does it establish new taxes, it does contain a series of proposals that seek to strengthen revenue collection.

Among its principal components, adjustments in the collection of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS), changes to the customs framework, new provisions for sectors such as Fintech and Digital Platform Services, as well as new auditing strategies, stand out.