Winter Caribbean Travel Hit by Plane Shortage

Cancún, Mexico — A scarcity of airplane seats, driven by aircraft maintenance and high demand for planes that has stalled airlines' annual expansion plans, could complicate the winter season in the Mexican Caribbean, according to tourism industry representatives who project moderate occupancy levels for the end of the year.

In fact, since May, airlines, including Airbus, warned that delays in aircraft deliveries persisted and there was even a risk they could continue for three more years, all while carriers continue to deal with high demand for seats. This issue was first reflected in 2024, when travel agencies like Expedia informed the Association of Vacation Complexes and Tourism (Acotur) that 1.3 million seats were lacking, a result of aircraft maintenance.

Since then, tourism activity has registered a contraction in traveler flow affecting several markets, including the Mexican Caribbean, where low occupancy was worsened by sargassum seaweed washing ashore and geopolitical problems. In this sense, the outlook for the winter is not encouraging and the issue of airplane seats continues to dictate the pace of tourist travel, acknowledged the president of the Cancún, Puerto Morelos, and Isla Mujeres Hotel Association, Rodrigo de la Peña Segura.

He indicated that, although the average summer occupancy was 75 percent, it is considered positive because the hotel infrastructure continues to grow and more hotel rooms are added every day, which gives him confidence that the Mexican Caribbean will see better performance in the winter.

However, the president of the Quintana Roo Vacation Clubs Association (Acluvaq), Miran Cortes Franco, acknowledged they have reservations regarding the end of the year, as the aircraft shortage continues to hit the tourism industry.

She commented that making projections is very difficult due to the lack of available aircraft limiting the arrival of travelers to the destination, which translates into a challenge for hotels and service providers.

"The issue of the lack of airplanes continues to be the main problem, and heading into the winter it will continue to affect us, just as it did in the summer," she stated.

For his part, the president of the Quintana Roo Nautical Associates (ANQ), Francisco Fernández Millán, said that expectations for the winter season are moderate due to the entire issue of the lack of airplane seats, which was already reflected in the summer, but they at least aspire to 70 to 75 percent occupancy.

He commented that several factors are affecting the tourism sector, so they hope the situation will be gradually resolved, but for the moment, they are experiencing one of the worst low seasons; summer did not meet expectations and the end of the year looks complicated.

In turn, the president of the Association of Professional Vacation Rental Administrators, Manuel Lozano Álvarez, indicated that projections for the end of the year are reserved based on how the summer performed, as the lack of seats persists and all the external problems affecting tourism activity are added to it.

"It is too early to predict the winter season; we must wait for the lack of airplane seats to be resolved, but the sector was also affected by the drop in traveler flow; the entire tourism activity felt the impact."

Likewise, the president of the National Chamber of the Restaurant and Seasoned Food Industry (Canirac), José Julio Villarreal Zapata, stated that the sector did not meet expectations in the summer, although they have had some minimal upticks during holiday periods, but overall it has been a complicated year.

He mentioned that the causes for the drop in traveler flow are multifactorial, but the maintenance of aircraft stands out, a process that continues; therefore, they are reserved regarding the winter season. "We hope for better numbers to end the year at a break-even point."

It is worth noting that the head of the Quintana Roo Ministry of Tourism (Sedetur), Bernardo Cueto Riestra, himself warned at the start of the year that the inspection of aircraft would continue, which is ultimately a factor influencing traveler movement, hence why occupancy would fluctuate between 75 and 80 percent in the summer.

He insisted that the maintenance of aircraft engines remains the main reason why some routes have been limited and the Mexican Caribbean, like other destinations worldwide, is impacted, so they hope the problem will be gradually resolved.

Data

The scarcity of airplane seats in 2025, affecting the Mexican Caribbean and other markets, is due to high demand for aircraft, a lack of manpower, and flight reductions caused by the need for engine inspections.

A study by Tronos Aviation Consultancy and AeroDynamic Advisor states that, following the recovery of travel after the pandemic, airlines would require more than 8 million seats.

Airbus warned airlines in May that delivery delays could persist for another three years while it works through a backlog of supply problems, which it attributes mainly to engines and seats.

Airlines continue to see their short-term capacity expansion plans stalled by delivery delays and lengthy maintenance processes.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that seat restrictions will continue due to persistent problems in the supply chain and production limitations in 2025.

Main Causes of the Seat Shortage

• Problems in the supply chain and production: Deliveries of aircraft from manufacturers like Boeing have been delayed, and hundreds of airlines are awaiting new planes, exacerbating the lack of supply in the market.
• Engine inspections: Airlines like Volaris have had to withdraw aircraft to perform mandatory engine inspections, such as those for Pratt & Whitney engines, which decreases available capacity and the number of flights.
• Bottlenecks and lack of manpower: The industry faces a manpower shortage and bottlenecks in the supply chain that limit aircraft production and maintenance.
• High flight demand: Despite the aircraft shortage, the demand for travel is high, causing flights to arrive with all seats full and limiting the ability to serve new markets or to grow.