Trump’s Global Tariff Hike Could Benefit Mexico, Experts Say

Mexico City — Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of increased global tariffs could benefit Mexico, according to trade experts, despite ongoing sector-specific duties.

Trump stated on his Truth Social platform Saturday that he would raise the global tariff under Section 122 from 10% to 15%. Kenneth Smith Ramos, former head of technical negotiations for the USMCA, commented on X that “the greatest impact of this increase will be felt in those countries that managed to maintain the reciprocal global tariffs of 10% under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), such as Australia, the United Kingdom, and Singapore.”

Smith Ramos added, “Interestingly, this additional tariff increase benefits Mexico and Canada, since our exports that comply with USMCA will remain tariff-free.”

While the implementation of new tariffs will be clarified in coming days through publication in the Federal Register, Juan Carlos Anaya, director general of Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), noted that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision does not eliminate tariffs under Sections 232 and 301.

Sector-specific tariffs include 50% for steel, aluminum, and copper. Additionally, cars, heavy trucks, and auto parts that do not meet USMCA regional content rules face a 25% tariff, reduced to 15% if they comply.

Anaya explained that the U.S. will continue applying a 17.09% compensatory fee on Mexican tomatoes, which is not a tariff. This measure took effect last July after the 2019 suspension agreement exempting Mexico from anti-dumping fees expired.

“For the agri-food sector, the impact is significant. Importers, processors, and companies linked to grain, oilseed, protein, and energy chains are among those who have already initiated lawsuits to recover payments,” he said.

The consultancy noted that the judicialization of trade introduces prolonged regulatory uncertainty. “For Mexican agriculture, this means greater volatility in logistics costs, exchange rates, and investment decisions linked to the U.S. market,” it stated.

The Laboratory of Analysis in Trade, Economy and Business (LACEN) at UNAM, coordinated by Ignacio Martínez Cortes, said the White House has a broad legal framework to boost U.S. economic growth and promote domestic markets through fiscal measures and tariff barriers, adopting a protectionist trade policy that could cause significant damage to the global economy and international trade.

The center added that Trump could also pursue additional investigations under Sections 301 and 232, tools previously used to impose tariffs on Chinese exports, automobiles, and metals. Furthermore, the former president has threatened to apply new tariffs of 15% to 30% on foreign cars. “Through his economic policy, Trump is designing a trade policy aligned with national security strategy,” LACEN stated.