Mexico Flood Alert: 8 States at Risk Today

A foggy road lined with palm trees near the ocean, with buildings faintly visible in the background.

Mexico — The Mexican territory is expected to experience severe storms due to the influence of three low-pressure zones, one of which has the potential for cyclonic development to the south. The east, south, and southeast of the national territory, including the Yucatan Peninsula, are facing very heavy to intense rains, according to the National Water Commission (CONAGUA).

A Complex Meteorological Event

This sustained precipitation is a phenomenon caused by the convergence of a complex array of meteorological systems. The instability is generated primarily by a low-pressure zone with a potential for cyclonic development located south of the coasts of Chiapas and Oaxaca.

Contributing to the severe weather are an upper-level cyclonic circulation located off the coast of Veracruz and a second low-pressure zone moving over the Yucatán Peninsula. Further atmospheric instability and cloud formations from the monsoon trough, extending very close to the South Pacific coast of Mexico, are also factors in this storm system.

States Under Maximum Alert for Flooding

The National Meteorological System (SMN) reported that the severity of this storm has prompted an alert due to intense rainfall, with accumulations forecasted to range between 75 and 150 millimeters.

The states under this maximum intensity warning are Oaxaca, specifically its northern and eastern regions; Chiapas; Puebla, in its eastern regions; and Veracruz, across its coastal and southern areas. Tabasco is also included in this alert. The Yucatán Peninsula is severely affected, with heavy rains forecast for Campeche in its eastern and southwestern regions; Yucatán in its southern regions; and Quintana Roo in its eastern, central, and southern regions.

Potential Hazards and Warnings

The intense rainfall expected in these regions will be accompanied by lightning and the possibility of hail. The consequences of these extreme rainfall events are significant, as they have the potential to reduce visibility on roadways and may cause ponding, landslides, and flooding. Of particular concern is the risk of rising river and stream levels in the impacted areas.

In the Gulf of Mexico region, where Veracruz and Tabasco are expected to experience heavy rainfall, authorities are warning of a combination of lightning and possible hail, which increases the risk of landslides, flooding, and puddles.

Similarly, in the Yucatan Peninsula, the presence of a low-pressure zone is driving intense rains in Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo, which could cause flooding and puddles in the area.

In the South Pacific, where Oaxaca and Chiapas expect intense rainfall, the effects extend to maritime conditions. Along the coasts of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters in height are forecast. In the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Oaxaca, northerly winds of 10 to 25 kilometers per hour, with gusts of 30 to 50 kilometers per hour, are also expected.

Meteorological authorities will maintain surveillance and update the forecast regarding the development of these phenomena.


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